#15Ryan Finley

QB·NC State·2018 2017 20168.4 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Ryan Finley is a 3-year Dual-Threat QB for NC State. Ryan's 2018 season ranks in the 57th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 459 plays — a average rate for the QB. Ryan's production has improved each season, a positive development trajectory.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Ryan Finley's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2018 Production

Passing

300/447 Comp/Att3612 Pass yards21 Pass TD10 INT67.1% Comp %

Rushing

20 Rush yards1 Rush TD40 Carries0.5 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2018 · vs QB peers

Efficiency57
Volume100
Dual-Threat55
Consistency75
Clutch98

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)57th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency75th %ile · above avg

Career trajectory:↑ Rising

Key findings

▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸Career trajectory is upward — WEPA value has improved season over season.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸9 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Peak game: 0.75 EPA/play in Wk 10 vs Florida State (SP+ 1).

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Stetson Bennett	Georgia	2022	509	0.635	12.5	323.0
Kyle McCord	Syracuse	2024	632	0.509	12.1	321.4
Sam Hartman	Wake Forest	2021	647	0.556	11.8	359.6
Tanner Mordecai	SMU	2021	510	0.630	14.0	321.5

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsJames Madison	W24-13	—	29/43	309	2	0	6	0	0.49
2	vsGeorgia State	W41-7	-20.4	31/38	370	2	1	0	0	0.57
4	@Marshall	W37-20	1.0	23/40	377	1	0	-1	0	0.52
5	vsVirginia	W35-21	7.1	22/32	257	3	0	7	0	0.59
6	vsBoston College	W28-23	2.4	25/34	308	2	2	19	0	0.52
8	@Clemson	L7-41	29.7	21/34	156	0	2	-5	0	-0.20
9	@Syracuse	L41-51	7.5	26/44	473	3	1	0	0	0.63
10	vsFlorida State	W47-28	1.4	21/27	240	3	0	7	0	0.75
11	vsWake Forest	L23-27	3.6	35/51	374	1	0	-3	1	0.28
13	@North Carolina	W34-28	-2.5	16/28	200	0	1	3	0	0.49
14	vsEast Carolina	W58-3	-14.9	32/44	409	3	1	-9	0	0.50
1	vsTexas A&M	L13-52	21.6	19/32	139	1	2	-4	0	-0.40

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

52.4%

Passing plays

98.2%

Rushing plays

7.7%

Standard downs

45.8%

Passing downs

68.5%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.30
Passing downs: 0.59
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.43 / 0.17

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2016 — 2018 · 38 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2016	NC State	6.0	0.424	—	189.4
2017	NC State	9.2	0.471	+0.05	253.8
2018	NC State	8.4	0.500	+0.03	233.5

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.