#15Ryan Finley

QB·NC State·2018 2017 20166.0 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Ryan Finley is a 3-year Clutch Passer for NC State. Ryan's 2016 season ranks in the 18th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 451 plays — a developing rate for the QB. Ryan's production has improved each season, a positive development trajectory.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Ryan Finley's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2016 Production

Passing

243/402 Comp/Att3055 Pass yards18 Pass TD8 INT60.4% Comp %

Rushing

94 Rush yards1 Rush TD74 Carries1.3 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2016 · vs QB peers

Efficiency18
Volume100
Dual-Threat11
Consistency66
Clutch100

Player type

Clutch Passer

Elevates on passing downs — 3rd-and-medium, two-minute drills, and pressure situations are where this QB is best.

3rd-down precisionLate-game valueHigh passing-down EPA

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)18th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency66th %ile · average

Career trajectory:↑ Rising

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸Career trajectory is upward — WEPA value has improved season over season.
▸6 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Peak game: 0.77 EPA/play in Wk 3 vs Old Dominion (SP+ -1).

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsWilliam & Mary	W48-14	—	17/21	174	2	0	76.1	6	0	0.31
2	@East Carolina	L30-33	-9.0	20/31	259	1	0	75.6	20	1	0.49
3	vsOld Dominion	W49-22	-0.7	24/28	281	3	0	93.3	0	0	0.77
5	vsWake Forest	W33-16	-0.6	23/36	300	3	0	85.0	17	0	0.56
6	vsNotre Dame	W10-3	15.7	5/12	27	0	0	2.2	-17	0	-0.51
7	@Clemson	L17-24	28.7	20/40	231	0	2	25.6	24	0	0.07
8	@Louisville	L13-54	22.9	16/31	236	2	2	4.9	-2	0	0.20
9	vsBoston College	L14-21	-1.6	23/41	307	2	2	26.7	-17	0	0.03
10	vsFlorida State	L20-24	24.0	25/41	304	1	1	50.1	20	0	0.17
11	@Syracuse	W35-20	-2.7	20/29	340	1	0	78.3	-11	0	0.43
12	vsMiami	L13-27	18.6	20/44	210	0	1	42.9	23	0	0.13
13	@North Carolina	W28-21	15.9	11/18	151	0	0	73.2	7	0	0.42
1	vsVanderbilt	W41-17	-1.2	19/30	235	3	0	89.5	24	0	0.51

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

50.0%

Passing plays

91.6%

Rushing plays

12.2%

Standard downs

40.7%

Passing downs

69.0%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.15
Passing downs: 0.45
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.33 / -0.04

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2016 — 2018 · 38 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2016	NC State	6.0	0.424	—	189.4
2017	NC State	9.2	0.471	+0.05	253.8
2018	NC State	8.4	0.500	+0.03	233.5

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.