#12Rakeem Cato

QB·Marshall·2014 201310.4 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Rakeem Cato is a 2-year Dual-Threat QB for Marshall. Rakeem's 2014 season ranks in the 63th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 462 plays — a average rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Rakeem Cato's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2014 Production

Passing

267/451 Comp/Att3903 Pass yards40 Pass TD13 INT59.2% Comp %

Rushing

482 Rush yards8 Rush TD94 Carries5.1 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2014 · vs QB peers

Efficiency63
Volume100
Dual-Threat87
Consistency87
Clutch100

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)63th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency87th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸9 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Peak game: 0.86 EPA/play in Wk 3 vs Ohio (SP+ -12).

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Stetson Bennett	Georgia	2022	509	0.635	12.5	323.0
Tanner Mordecai	SMU	2021	510	0.630	14.0	321.5
Ryan Higgins	Louisiana Tech	2016	571	0.586	13.7	334.6
Kyle McCord	Syracuse	2024	632	0.509	12.1	321.4
Baker Mayfield	Oklahoma	2015	577	0.561	14.1	323.7

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	@Miami (OH)	W42-27	-18.7	20/32	261	3	0	67.4	-10	1	0.24
2	vsRhode Island	W48-7	—	15/29	267	2	0	78.2	143	1	0.43
3	vsOhio	W44-14	-11.7	17/29	425	4	1	95.1	19	0	0.86
4	@Akron	W48-17	-9.4	17/31	210	1	1	77.5	23	2	0.42
6	@Old Dominion	W56-14	-12.7	18/23	198	2	2	81.7	20	0	0.13
7	vsMiddle Tennessee	W49-24	-8.7	17/33	337	3	1	79.1	5	1	0.54
8	@Florida International	W45-13	-16.2	15/27	214	4	1	78.9	23	0	0.58
9	vsFlorida Atlantic	W35-16	-10.4	13/24	218	1	0	75.8	32	0	0.51
11	@Southern Miss	W63-17	-15.9	13/19	186	2	0	97.2	92	1	—
12	vsRice	W41-14	-3.1	23/37	297	4	1	77.4	12	0	0.51
13	@UAB	W23-18	-4.2	20/38	284	2	1	74.2	41	0	0.38
14	vsWestern Kentucky	L66-67	-2.6	29/46	417	7	4	70.5	29	0	0.46
15	vsLouisiana Tech	W26-23	-1.7	25/46	308	2	1	45.2	28	0	0.08
1	vsNorthern Illinois	W52-23	-0.6	25/37	281	3	0	86.7	25	2	0.46

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

52.2%

Passing plays

95.3%

Rushing plays

13.8%

Standard downs

47.9%

Passing downs

62.6%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.27
Passing downs: 0.63
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.41 / 0.34

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2013 — 2014 · 27 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2013	Marshall	3.6	0.265	—	129.4
2014	Marshall	10.4	0.520	+0.26	271.3

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.