#9Michael Penix Jr.

QB·Washington·2023 202214.2 pts line value1st Round

Michael Penix Jr. is a 2-year Dual-Threat QB for Washington. Michael's 2023 season ranks in the 83th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 551 plays — a above-average rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Michael Penix Jr.'s projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2023 Production

Passing

363/556 Comp/Att4903 Pass yards36 Pass TD11 INT65.3% Comp %

Rushing

8 Rush yards3 Rush TD35 Carries0.2 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2023 · vs QB peers

Efficiency83
Volume100
Dual-Threat100
Consistency88
Clutch55

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)83th %ile · above avg

Game-to-game consistency88th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸Above-average efficiency for the QB position (83th percentile).
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸8 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.25 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.86 EPA/play in Wk 3 vs Michigan State (SP+ -7).

NIL Market Tier· 2023

On3 valuation ↗

Star

Top-10 nationally. Multiple mid-to-large collective deals expected.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Will Howard	Ohio State	2024	565	0.670	14.5	378.8
J.T. Barrett	Ohio State	2017	576	0.593	14.1	341.6
Ryan Higgins	Louisiana Tech	2016	571	0.586	13.7	334.6
Tanner Mordecai	SMU	2021	510	0.630	14.0	321.5
Baker Mayfield	Oklahoma	2015	577	0.561	14.1	323.7

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsBoise State	W56-19	5.9	29/40	450	5	0	92.7	-2	0	0.59
2	vsTulsa	W43-10	-13.7	28/38	409	3	1	90.4	11	0	0.83
3	@Michigan State	W41-7	-6.8	27/35	473	4	0	98.2	—	—	0.86
4	vsCalifornia	W59-32	-0.1	19/25	304	4	1	92.9	5	0	0.79
5	@Arizona	W31-24	14.1	30/40	363	0	0	84.1	-5	0	0.36
7	vsOregon	W36-33	26.2	22/37	302	4	1	89.2	-5	0	0.57
8	vsArizona State	W15-7	-11.3	27/42	275	0	2	41.4	-1	0	0.28
9	@Stanford	W42-33	-11.9	21/38	369	4	1	54.4	-12	0	0.48
10	@USC	W52-42	9.4	22/30	256	2	1	90.5	-4	1	0.49
11	vsUtah	W35-28	8.5	24/42	332	2	0	88.6	-14	1	0.39
12	@Oregon State	W22-20	12.6	13/28	162	2	0	85.6	22	1	0.42
13	vsWashington State	W24-21	4.9	18/33	204	2	1	53.1	-9	0	0.15
14	vsOregon	W34-31	26.2	27/39	319	1	1	87.8	-4	0	0.35
20	vsMichigan	L13-34	31.3	27/51	255	1	2	—	-5	0	—
20	vsTexas	W37-31	23.2	29/38	430	2	0	97.7	31	0	—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

59.3%

Passing plays

96.8%

Rushing plays

7.0%

Standard downs

53.6%

Passing downs

74.7%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.43
Passing downs: 0.51
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.46 / 0.44

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2022 — 2023 · 28 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2022	Washington	12.3	0.541	—	315.3
2023	Washington	14.2	0.650	+0.11	382.2

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.