#18Will Howard

QB·Ohio State·202414.5 pts line value1st Round

Will Howard is a Dual-Threat QB for Ohio State. Will's 2024 season ranks in the 98th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 500 plays — a elite rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Will Howard's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2024 Production

Passing

309/423 Comp/Att4010 Pass yards35 Pass TD10 INT73.0% Comp %

Rushing

226 Rush yards7 Rush TD105 Carries2.2 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2024 · vs QB peers

Efficiency98
Volume100
Dual-Threat87
Consistency91
Clutch88

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)98th %ile · elite

Game-to-game consistency91th %ile · elite

Key findings

▸Top-10% efficiency among QBs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸10 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.08 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.77 EPA/play in Wk 11 vs Purdue (SP+ -16).

NIL Market Tier· 2024

On3 valuation ↗

Elite

Top-3 player at position nationally. Collective + national brand deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Malik Cunningham	Louisville	2021	502	0.681	14.7	341.6
Kaidon Salter	Liberty	2023	486	0.711	14.7	345.6
Tanner Mordecai	SMU	2021	510	0.630	14.0	321.5
Blake Sims	Alabama	2014	473	0.696	15.4	329.4
Dillon Gabriel	Oklahoma	2023	473	0.732	16.1	346.4

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsAkron	W52-6	-17.9	17/28	228	3	0	70.2	18	0	0.64
2	vsWestern Michigan	W56-0	-10.2	18/26	292	1	0	89.3	6	1	0.62
4	vsMarshall	W49-14	3.1	16/20	275	2	1	98.0	-2	1	0.76
5	@Michigan State	W38-7	-4.6	21/31	244	2	1	79.8	14	1	0.58
6	vsIowa	W35-7	15.8	21/25	209	4	1	84.3	28	1	0.52
7	@Oregon	L31-32	26.0	28/35	326	2	0	93.4	13	1	0.59
9	vsNebraska	W21-17	5.5	13/16	221	3	1	73.9	14	0	0.65
10	@Penn State	W20-13	24.6	16/24	182	2	1	69.9	24	0	0.25
11	vsPurdue	W45-0	-16.2	21/26	260	3	0	76.3	7	1	0.77
12	vsNorthwestern	W31-7	-8.2	15/24	247	2	0	95.9	0	0	0.50
13	vsIndiana	W38-15	20.1	22/26	201	2	1	86.8	-1	1	0.42
14	vsMichigan	L10-13	10.6	19/33	175	1	2	56.8	10	0	0.29
20	vsOregon	W41-21	26.0	17/26	319	3	0	97.7	-3	0	—
20	vsNotre Dame	W34-23	23.9	17/21	231	2	0	99.1	57	0	—
20	vsTennessee	W42-17	22.0	24/29	311	2	1	98.7	37	0	—
20	vsTexas	W28-14	24.1	24/33	289	1	1	90.0	4	0	—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

52.5%

Passing plays

90.8%

Rushing plays

17.6%

Standard downs

48.0%

Passing downs

64.1%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.44
Passing downs: 0.68
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.58 / 0.34

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2024 · 16 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.