#9Michael Penix Jr.

QB·Washington·2023 202212.3 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Michael Penix Jr. is a 2-year Clutch Passer for Washington. Michael's 2022 season ranks in the 63th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 563 plays — a average rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Michael Penix Jr.'s projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2022 Production

Passing

362/554 Comp/Att4641 Pass yards31 Pass TD8 INT65.3% Comp %

Rushing

92 Rush yards4 Rush TD35 Carries2.6 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2022 · vs QB peers

Efficiency63
Volume100
Dual-Threat43
Consistency83
Clutch100

Player type

Clutch Passer

Elevates on passing downs — 3rd-and-medium, two-minute drills, and pressure situations are where this QB is best.

3rd-down precisionLate-game valueHigh passing-down EPA

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)63th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency83th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸7 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.11 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.85 EPA/play in Wk 7 vs Arizona (SP+ -3).

NIL Market Tier· 2022

On3 valuation ↗

Star

Top-10 nationally. Multiple mid-to-large collective deals expected.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Ryan Higgins	Louisiana Tech	2016	571	0.586	13.7	334.6
Trace McSorley	Penn State	2017	626	0.513	12.7	321.0
Kyle McCord	Syracuse	2024	632	0.509	12.1	321.4
Stetson Bennett	Georgia	2022	509	0.635	12.5	323.0
Baker Mayfield	Oklahoma	2015	577	0.561	14.1	323.7

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsKent State	W45-20	-13.1	26/39	345	4	0	83.9	27	0	0.73
2	vsPortland State	W52-6	—	20/27	337	2	1	87.3	—	—	0.78
3	vsMichigan State	W39-28	1.2	24/40	397	4	0	91.9	4	0	0.41
4	vsStanford	W40-22	-7.2	22/37	309	2	0	63.7	-5	0	0.37
5	@UCLA	L32-40	15.0	33/48	345	4	2	66.7	-1	0	0.48
6	@Arizona State	L38-45	-4.1	33/53	311	0	1	55.2	-6	1	0.17
7	vsArizona	W49-39	-3.2	36/44	516	4	0	90.7	13	1	0.85
8	@California	W28-21	-3.0	36/51	374	2	0	76.7	-14	0	0.37
10	vsOregon State	W24-21	14.3	30/52	298	1	1	65.7	8	0	0.02
11	@Oregon	W37-34	18.9	26/35	408	2	1	93.9	20	0	0.74
12	vsColorado	W54-7	-20.4	19/31	229	1	0	59.2	6	0	0.23
13	@Washington State	W51-33	9.5	25/43	485	3	1	96.3	34	2	0.71
1	vsTexas	W27-20	23.1	32/54	287	2	1	—	6	0	0.20

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

59.9%

Passing plays

96.0%

Rushing plays

7.7%

Standard downs

55.5%

Passing downs

71.0%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.32
Passing downs: 0.68
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.46 / 0.11

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2022 — 2023 · 28 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2022	Washington	12.3	0.541	—	315.3
2023	Washington	14.2	0.650	+0.11	382.2

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.