#21Carson Hansen

RB·Iowa State·2025 20242.3 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Carson Hansen is a 2-year Explosive Back for Iowa State. Carson's 2024 season ranks in the 53th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 161 plays — a average rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Carson Hansen's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2024 Production

Rushing

752 Rush yards13 Rush TD151 Carries5.0 Yards/carry

Receiving

13 Receptions88 Rec yards2 Rec TD6.8 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2024 · vs RB peers

Efficiency53
Volume48
Explosiveness40
Consistency31
Receiving31

Player type

Explosive Back

Elite per-carry efficiency — breaks big runs and creates chunk plays at a top rate while in a limited role.

Big-play threatHigh EPA per carryCapitalises on opportunities

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)53th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency31th %ile · below avg

Key findings

▸High game-to-game variance — boom-or-bust profile.
▸4 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.20 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.86 EPA/play in Wk 8 vs UCF (SP+ 3).

NIL Market Tier· 2024

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Travis Etienne	Clemson	2019	213	0.470	4.7	100.1
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	LSU	2019	216	0.490	5.0	105.8
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2017	240	0.410	5.2	98.4
James Flanders	Tulsa	2016	266	0.390	4.9	103.7

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	vsNorth Dakota	W21-3	—	6	20	3.3	0	—	—	—	0.11
2	@Iowa	W20-19	15.8	2	2	1.0	0	2	5	0	-0.68
4	vsArkansas State	W52-7	-9.9	9	58	6.4	2	—	—	—	0.83
5	@Houston	W20-0	-8.2	9	34	3.8	0	2	17	0	0.22
6	vsBaylor	W43-21	8.4	15	97	6.5	0	—	—	—	0.16
7	@West Virginia	W28-16	2.1	20	96	4.8	3	—	—	—	0.46
8	vsUCF	W38-35	2.8	9	91	10.1	2	—	—	—	0.86
10	vsTexas Tech	L22-23	4.3	11	46	4.2	0	1	8	0	0.00
11	vsKansas	L36-45	4.9	8	48	6.0	1	1	16	0	0.30
12	vsCincinnati	W34-17	-0.1	9	11	1.2	1	—	—	—	-0.56
13	@Utah	W31-28	7.7	14	57	4.1	2	2	28	0	0.43
14	vsKansas State	W29-21	14.1	13	58	4.5	0	—	—	—	-0.02
15	vsArizona State	L19-45	9.4	10	52	5.2	0	4	1	1	0.30
20	vsMiami	W42-41	21.6	16	82	5.1	2	1	13	1	—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

16.8%

Passing plays

2.9%

Rushing plays

30.4%

Standard downs

22.2%

Passing downs

4.4%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.22
Passing downs: 0.36
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.70 / 0.19

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2024 — 2025 · 25 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2024	Iowa State	2.3	0.330	—	53.5
2025	Iowa State	1.5	0.160	-0.17	28.5

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.