#15Brock Purdy

QB·Iowa State·2020 201910.0 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Brock Purdy is a 2-year Clutch Passer for Iowa State. Brock's 2019 season ranks in the 50th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 566 plays — a average rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Brock Purdy's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2019 Production

Passing

312/475 Comp/Att3982 Pass yards27 Pass TD9 INT65.7% Comp %

Rushing

249 Rush yards8 Rush TD93 Carries2.7 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2019 · vs QB peers

Efficiency50
Volume100
Dual-Threat47
Consistency77
Clutch73

Player type

Clutch Passer

Elevates on passing downs — 3rd-and-medium, two-minute drills, and pressure situations are where this QB is best.

3rd-down precisionLate-game valueHigh passing-down EPA

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)50th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency77th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸4 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.22 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 1.07 EPA/play in Wk 4 vs UL Monroe (SP+ -11).

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Kyle McCord	Syracuse	2024	632	0.509	12.1	321.4
Sam Hartman	Wake Forest	2021	647	0.556	11.8	359.6
Trace McSorley	Penn State	2017	626	0.513	12.7	321.0
Jordan Travis	Florida State	2021	690	0.476	10.1	328.3
Stetson Bennett	Georgia	2022	509	0.635	12.5	323.0

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsNorthern Iowa	W29-26	—	30/41	278	2	0	75.7	-11	0	0.31
3	vsIowa	L17-18	16.7	24/34	276	1	0	48.9	34	0	0.32
4	vsUL Monroe	W72-20	-10.7	21/27	435	3	1	96.0	75	3	1.07
5	@Baylor	L21-23	17.8	27/45	342	2	1	53.2	3	0	0.26
6	vsTCU	W49-24	6.7	19/24	247	2	0	90.9	102	2	0.56
7	@West Virginia	W38-14	-7.0	19/30	229	1	1	71.4	-15	1	0.17
8	@Texas Tech	W34-24	2.7	23/32	378	3	1	87.9	7	0	0.76
9	vsOklahoma State	L27-34	8.7	39/62	382	1	3	42.0	1	0	0.05
11	@Oklahoma	L41-42	22.9	19/30	282	5	0	—	55	1	0.38
12	vsTexas	W23-21	12.0	30/48	354	2	1	—	8	0	0.24
13	vsKansas	W41-31	-9.8	29/42	372	4	1	—	9	1	0.58
14	@Kansas State	L17-27	6.0	15/30	185	1	0	—	-3	0	0.06
1	vsNotre Dame	L9-33	17.7	17/30	222	0	0	—	-16	0	0.09

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

62.2%

Passing plays

98.0%

Rushing plays

19.3%

Standard downs

55.2%

Passing downs

78.9%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.29
Passing downs: 0.45
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.38 / 0.13

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2019 — 2020 · 25 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2019	Iowa State	10.0	0.505	—	282.8
2020	Iowa State	8.7	0.503	-0.00	239.1

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.