#15Brock Purdy

QB·Iowa State·2020 20198.7 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Brock Purdy is a 2-year Dual-Threat QB for Iowa State. Brock's 2020 season ranks in the 57th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 434 plays — a average rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Brock Purdy's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2020 Production

Passing

243/364 Comp/Att2750 Pass yards19 Pass TD9 INT66.8% Comp %

Rushing

382 Rush yards5 Rush TD87 Carries4.4 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2020 · vs QB peers

Efficiency57
Volume100
Dual-Threat100
Consistency77
Clutch39

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)57th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency77th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸4 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.22 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 1.20 EPA/play in Wk 14 vs West Virginia (SP+ 9).

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Stetson Bennett	Georgia	2022	509	0.635	12.5	323.0
Tanner Mordecai	SMU	2021	510	0.630	14.0	321.5

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
2	vsLouisiana	L14-31	8.1	16/35	145	0	1	35	0	0.05
4	@TCU	W37-34	1.6	18/22	211	1	0	6	0	0.33
5	vsOklahoma	W37-30	17.8	12/24	254	1	0	-2	1	0.65
6	vsTexas Tech	W31-15	-4.2	32/43	302	2	0	42	0	0.42
8	@Oklahoma State	L21-24	14.2	19/34	162	1	1	38	1	0.07
9	@Kansas	W52-22	-16.3	23/34	239	2	1	20	1	0.29
10	vsBaylor	W38-31	1.3	15/24	164	3	3	55	0	0.25
12	vsKansas State	W45-0	2.0	16/20	236	3	0	59	0	0.80
13	@Texas	W23-20	9.7	25/36	312	1	0	19	0	0.30
14	vsWest Virginia	W42-6	8.5	20/23	247	3	0	38	1	1.20
16	vsOklahoma	L21-27	17.8	27/40	322	1	3	33	0	0.23
1	vsOregon	W34-17	18.1	20/29	156	1	0	39	1	0.36

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

54.5%

Passing plays

97.7%

Rushing plays

16.8%

Standard downs

44.9%

Passing downs

80.0%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.37
Passing downs: 0.37
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.33 / 0.54

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2019 — 2020 · 25 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2019	Iowa State	10.0	0.505	—	282.8
2020	Iowa State	8.7	0.503	-0.00	239.1

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.