Boise State vs. San Diego State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
BOISTeam statsSDSU
- Q4 4:52BOISAlexander Mattison 4 Yd Run (Haden Hoggarth Kick)31–14
- Q4 10:06SDSURashaad Penny 11 Yd Run (John Baron II Kick)24–14
- Q4 14:52BOISHaden Hoggarth 19 Yd Field Goal 24–7
- Q3 4:15SDSUFred Trevillion 89 Yd pass from Christian Chapman (John Baron II Kick)21–7
- Q2 3:11BOISJake Roh 3 Yd pass from Brett Rypien (Haden Hoggarth Kick)21–0
- Q1 4:20BOISKekaula Kaniho 34 Yd Fumble Return (Haden Hoggarth Kick)14–0
- Q1 6:17BOISAvery Williams 53 Yd Punt Return (Haden Hoggarth Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- SDSU played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and BOIS did not face the same ones. 3rd & 7.4 vs 3rd & 3.5
- SDSU lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 15% explosive on a 33% success rate
- PassBrett Rypien 11/19, 72 YDS, 1 TD
- RushAlexander Mattison 23 CAR, 128 YDS, 1 TD
- RecCedrick Wilson Jr. 2 REC, 60 YDS
- PassChristian Chapman 12/27, 240 YDS, 1 TD
- RushRashaad Penny 21 CAR, 53 YDS, 1 TD
- RecFred Trevillion 2 REC, 128 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsBOIS up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 4:20BOIS +19%
Christian Chapman sacked by Durrant Miles for a loss of 11 yards Christian Chapman fumbled, recovered by BoiSt Kekaula Kaniho, return for 0 yards, return for 34 yds, (…
- Q1 6:17BOIS +18%
Brandon Heicklen punt for 40 yds, Avery Williams returns for 53 yds for a TD, (Haden Hoggarth KICK)
- Q2 3:11BOIS +16%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Jake Roh for 3 yds for a TD, (Haden Hoggarth KICK)
- Q4 10:01BOIS +13%
Montell Cozart pass complete to Jake Roh for 7 yds to the BoiSt 44 for a 1ST down
- Q3 4:15SDSU +11%
Christian Chapman pass complete to Fred Trevillion for 89 yds for a TD, (John Baron II KICK)
- Q4 10:06SDSU +9%
Rashaad Penny run for 11 yds for a TD, (John Baron II KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Boise State vs. San Diego State?
Boise State 31, San Diego State 14.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked SDSU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| BOIS | SDSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 311 | Total yards | 323 |
| 125 | Passing yards | 240 |
| 186 | Rushing yards | 83 |
| 15 | First downs | 16 |
| 6-13 | 3rd down | 5-16 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 1-3 |
| 14/23 | Comp/Att | 12/27 |
| 5.4 | Yards per pass | 8.9 |
| 5.5 | Yards per rush | 2.1 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 3-35 | Penalties | 3-24 |
| 28:41 | Possession | 31:19 |
Costliest call
Q2 15:00 BOIS punt on 4th & 3 at SDSU 36. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.42 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 4:52BOISAlexander Mattison 4 Yd Run (Haden Hoggarth Kick)31–14
- Q4 10:06SDSURashaad Penny 11 Yd Run (John Baron II Kick)24–14
- Q4 14:52BOISHaden Hoggarth 19 Yd Field Goal 24–7
- Q3 4:15SDSUFred Trevillion 89 Yd pass from Christian Chapman (John Baron II Kick)21–7
- Q2 3:11BOISJake Roh 3 Yd pass from Brett Rypien (Haden Hoggarth Kick)21–0
- Q1 4:20BOISKekaula Kaniho 34 Yd Fumble Return (Haden Hoggarth Kick)14–0
- Q1 6:17BOISAvery Williams 53 Yd Punt Return (Haden Hoggarth Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (SDSU Elo 1718, BOIS Elo 1590 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects SDSU -7.5 (70% to win) — 2.5 points clear of SDSU's market line of -5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2017
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#54 of 107 in 2017 by biggest miss · #76 of 126 in 2017 by longest odds · #24 of 58 in 2017 by biggest poll gap.
The 2017 upset archive →Boise State leads 6–5 · 36% have been one-possession games
| BOIS | SDSU | |
|---|---|---|
| +8.9 (#35) | CORE overall | +7.9 (#40) |
| +4 / -5 | offense / defense | -0 / -8 |
| 2.45 | points / drive | 2.54 |
| 1.63 | allowed / drive | 1.60 |
| 22% | three-and-outs | 26% |
| +4 | pass over expected | -12 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →