South Alabama vs. Troy: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
USATeam statsTROY
- Q4 6:16TROYBrandon Silvers 1 Yd Run (John Johnson Run for Two-Point Conversion)19–8
- Q4 13:27USAGavin Patterson 47 Yd Field Goal 19–0
- Q3 7:27USAMalik Stanley 14 Yd pass from Dallas Davis (Gavin Patterson Kick)16–0
- Q2 4:16USATeam Safety 9–0
- Q1 3:10USAXavier Johnson 1 Yd Run (Gavin Patterson Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- TROY lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 16% explosive on a 37% success rate
- PassDallas Davis 7/10, 120 YDS, 1 TD
- RushDenzel Foster 9 CAR, 30 YDS
- RecTra Minter 3 REC, 83 YDS
- PassBrandon Silvers 24/46, 263 YDS, 1 INT
- RushJordan Chunn 10 CAR, 28 YDS
- RecEmanuel Thompson 6 REC, 67 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUSA up 16 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,243 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 7:27USA +22%
Malik Stanley 14 Yd pass from Dallas Davis (Gavin Patterson Kick)
- Q1 3:10USA +18%
Xavier Johnson 1 Yd Run (Gavin Patterson Kick)
- Q3 10:20USA +9%
Dallas Davis pass incomplete to Malik Stanley
- Q4 5:23USA +7%
Deonta Moore run for 2 yds to the Troy 44
- Q3 1:15USA +7%
Dallas Davis sacked by Trevon Sanders for a loss of 8 yards to the SAlab 11
- Q2 3:50USA +5%
Dallas Davis sacked by Antione Barker for a loss of 1 yard to the SAlab 44 SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the SAlab 29
FAQ
What was the final score of South Alabama vs. Troy?
South Alabama 19, Troy 8.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked TROY, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| USA | TROY | |
|---|---|---|
| 224 | Total yards | 299 |
| 176 | Passing yards | 269 |
| 48 | Rushing yards | 30 |
| 12 | First downs | 18 |
| 5-16 | 3rd down | 5-14 |
| 0-2 | 4th down | 0-2 |
| 11/20 | Comp/Att | 25/47 |
| 8.8 | Yards per pass | 5.7 |
| 1.1 | Yards per rush | 1.5 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 4 |
| 8-90 | Penalties | 6-33 |
| 35:59 | Possession | 24:01 |
Costliest call
Q2 0:00 TROY field goal on 4th & 1 at USA 10. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.93 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 6:16TROYBrandon Silvers 1 Yd Run (John Johnson Run for Two-Point Conversion)19–8
- Q4 13:27USAGavin Patterson 47 Yd Field Goal 19–0
- Q3 7:27USAMalik Stanley 14 Yd pass from Dallas Davis (Gavin Patterson Kick)16–0
- Q2 4:16USATeam Safety 9–0
- Q1 3:10USAXavier Johnson 1 Yd Run (Gavin Patterson Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (TROY Elo 1473, USA Elo 1240 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects TROY -11.7 (79% to win) — 6.3 points clear of USA's market line of -18. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2017
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#30 of 107 in 2017 by biggest miss · #13 of 126 in 2017 by longest odds.
The 2017 upset archive →Troy leads 10–4 · 43% have been one-possession games
| USA | TROY | |
|---|---|---|
| -20.7 (#120) | CORE overall | +8.2 (#38) |
| -16 / +4 | offense / defense | +2 / -6 |
| 1.37 | points / drive | 2.19 |
| 2.40 | allowed / drive | 1.49 |
| 39% | three-and-outs | 30% |
| +7 | pass over expected | +7 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →