Kentucky vs. Vanderbilt: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UKTeam statsVAN
- Q4 7:56UKAustin MacGinnis 39 Yd Field Goal 44–21
- Q3 0:13VANKalija Lipscomb 17 Yd pass from Kyle Shurmur (Tommy Openshaw Kick)41–21
- Q3 3:53UKBenny Snell Jr. 6 Yd Run (Austin MacGinnis Kick)41–14
- Q3 4:14VANKyle Shurmur 14 Yd Run (Tommy Openshaw Kick)34–14
- Q3 8:29UKSihiem King 7 Yd Run (Austin MacGinnis Kick)34–7
- Q3 12:57UKBenny Snell Jr. 2 Yd Run (Austin MacGinnis Kick)27–7
- Q2 0:00UKAustin MacGinnis 40 Yd Field Goal 20–7
- Q2 2:09UKAustin MacGinnis 42 Yd Field Goal 17–7
- Q2 11:15UKBenny Snell Jr. 22 Yd Run (Austin MacGinnis Kick)14–7
- Q1 2:14UKSihiem King 22 Yd Run (Austin MacGinnis Kick)7–7
- Q1 5:37VANRalph Webb 37 Yd Run (Tommy Openshaw Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassStephen Johnson 13/17, 195 YDS
- RushBenny Snell Jr. 17 CAR, 116 YDS, 3 TD
- RecLynn Bowden Jr. 3 REC, 79 YDS
- PassKyle Shurmur 30/43, 308 YDS, 1 TD, 4 INT
- RushRalph Webb 9 CAR, 70 YDS, 1 TD
- RecTrent Sherfield 8 REC, 81 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUK up 20 entering the 4th quarter. Across 818 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 11:15UK +21%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 22 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK)
- Q1 5:37VAN +19%
Ralph Webb run for 37 yds for a TD, (Tommy Openshaw KICK) KENTUCKY Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined
- Q1 2:14UK +18%
Sihiem King run for 22 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK)
- Q3 12:57UK +9%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 2 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK)
- Q2 2:09UK +8%
Austin MacGinnis 42 yd FG GOOD
- Q2 0:00UK +7%
Austin MacGinnis 40 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Kentucky vs. Vanderbilt?
Kentucky 44, Vanderbilt 21.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked VAN, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| UK | VAN | |
|---|---|---|
| 427 | Total yards | 368 |
| 195 | Passing yards | 308 |
| 232 | Rushing yards | 60 |
| 21 | First downs | 21 |
| 5-12 | 3rd down | 5-13 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 2-3 |
| 13/17 | Comp/Att | 30/43 |
| 11.5 | Yards per pass | 7.2 |
| 4.9 | Yards per rush | 3.0 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 4 |
| 9-61 | Penalties | 4-48 |
| 33:29 | Possession | 26:31 |
Costliest call
Q2 0:00 UK field goal on 4th & 1 at VAN 22. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.86 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 7:56UKAustin MacGinnis 39 Yd Field Goal 44–21
- Q3 0:13VANKalija Lipscomb 17 Yd pass from Kyle Shurmur (Tommy Openshaw Kick)41–21
- Q3 3:53UKBenny Snell Jr. 6 Yd Run (Austin MacGinnis Kick)41–14
- Q3 4:14VANKyle Shurmur 14 Yd Run (Tommy Openshaw Kick)34–14
- Q3 8:29UKSihiem King 7 Yd Run (Austin MacGinnis Kick)34–7
- Q3 12:57UKBenny Snell Jr. 2 Yd Run (Austin MacGinnis Kick)27–7
- Q2 0:00UKAustin MacGinnis 40 Yd Field Goal 20–7
- Q2 2:09UKAustin MacGinnis 42 Yd Field Goal 17–7
- Q2 11:15UKBenny Snell Jr. 22 Yd Run (Austin MacGinnis Kick)14–7
- Q1 2:14UKSihiem King 22 Yd Run (Austin MacGinnis Kick)7–7
- Q1 5:37VANRalph Webb 37 Yd Run (Tommy Openshaw Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (VAN Elo 1412, UK Elo 1432 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects VAN -1.6 (55% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2017
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#42 of 107 in 2017 by biggest miss · #101 of 126 in 2017 by longest odds.
The 2017 upset archive →Kentucky leads 49–42–4 · Vanderbilt has won 2 straight · 43% have been one-possession games
| UK | VAN | |
|---|---|---|
| -2.5 (#69) | CORE overall | +0.1 (#63) |
| +4 / +6 | offense / defense | +2 / +2 |
| 1.90 | points / drive | 1.89 |
| 2.54 | allowed / drive | 2.93 |
| 31% | three-and-outs | 34% |
| -2 | pass over expected | +6 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →