#14Kyle Shurmur

QB·Vanderbilt·20177.3 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Kyle Shurmur is a Clutch Passer for Vanderbilt. Kyle's 2017 season ranks in the 48th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 357 plays — a average rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Kyle Shurmur's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2017 Production

Passing

220/380 Comp/Att2823 Pass yards26 Pass TD10 INT57.9% Comp %

Rushing

-84 Rush yards3 Rush TD34 Carries-2.5 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2017 · vs QB peers

Efficiency48
Volume100
Dual-Threat21
Consistency69
Clutch58

Player type

Clutch Passer

Elevates on passing downs — 3rd-and-medium, two-minute drills, and pressure situations are where this QB is best.

3rd-down precisionLate-game valueHigh passing-down EPA

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)48th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency69th %ile · average

Key findings

▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸6 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.16 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 1.02 EPA/play in Wk 2 vs Alabama A&M.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	@Middle Tennessee	W28-6	-4.9	20/28	296	3	0	98.5	-6	0	0.74
2	vsAlabama A&M	W42-0	—	15/18	202	4	0	98.9	1	1	1.02
3	vsKansas State	W14-7	10.9	14/23	205	1	0	69.4	0	1	0.58
4	vsAlabama	L0-59	33.5	4/15	18	0	1	3.1	0	0	-0.31
5	@Florida	L24-38	10.1	18/40	264	3	0	65.7	-5	0	0.40
6	vsGeorgia	L14-45	26.7	17/31	172	1	0	53.8	—	—	0.34
7	@Ole Miss	L35-57	11.6	13/29	174	2	1	18.2	-59	0	0.04
9	@South Carolina	L27-34	7.8	27/49	333	4	1	71.8	—	—	0.37
10	vsWestern Kentucky	W31-17	-4.9	14/21	220	2	0	92.0	3	0	0.88
11	vsKentucky	L21-44	2.7	30/43	308	1	4	7.5	-22	1	0.06
12	vsMissouri	L17-45	11.1	28/52	348	1	3	10.5	-4	0	-0.14
13	@Tennessee	W42-24	1.2	20/31	283	4	0	87.3	8	0	0.61

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

54.7%

Passing plays

94.5%

Rushing plays

5.1%

Standard downs

48.6%

Passing downs

69.0%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.33
Passing downs: 0.41
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.38 / 0.01

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2017 · 12 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.