Wyoming vs. Colorado State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
WYOTeam statsCSU
- Q3 0:07WYOJosh Allen 18 Yd Run (Cooper Rothe Kick)38–17
- Q3 3:17WYOBrian Hill 1 Yd Run (Cooper Rothe Kick)31–17
- Q2 0:00CSUWyatt Bryan 36 Yd Field Goal 24–17
- Q2 1:04WYOChase Appleby 55 Yd Interception Return (Cooper Rothe Kick)24–14
- Q2 9:06WYOTanner Gentry 30 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Cooper Rothe Kick)17–14
- Q2 9:28WYOShaun Wick 5 Yd Run (Cooper Rothe Kick)10–14
- Q2 12:56CSUDetrich Clark 35 Yd Run (Wyatt Bryan Kick)3–14
- Q1 1:34CSUNolan Peralta 9 Yd pass from Collin Hill (Wyatt Bryan Kick)3–7
- Q1 9:30WYOCooper Rothe 35 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- WYO played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and CSU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.7 vs 3rd & 7.4
- WYO lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 21% explosive on a 38% success rate
- PassJosh Allen 7/18, 165 YDS, 1 TD
- RushBrian Hill 19 CAR, 166 YDS, 1 TD
- RecTanner Gentry 3 REC, 91 YDS, 1 TD
- PassCollin Hill 23/41, 370 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushIzzy Matthews 5 CAR, 38 YDS
- RecMichael Gallup 4 REC, 75 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsWYO up 21 entering the 4th quarter. Across 671 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 1:04WYO +24%
Collin Hill pass intercepted for a TD Chase Appleby return for 55 yds for a TD, (Cooper Rothe KICK)
- Q2 9:06WYO +23%
Josh Allen pass complete to Tanner Gentry for 30 yds for a TD, (Cooper Rothe KICK)
- Q3 3:17WYO +19%
Brian Hill run for 1 yd for a TD, (Cooper Rothe KICK)
- Q1 1:34CSU +17%
Nolan Peralta 9 Yd pass from Collin Hill (Wyatt Bryan Kick)
- Q2 9:28WYO +14%
Shaun Wick run for 5 yds for a TD, (Cooper Rothe KICK)
- Q2 12:56CSU +13%
Detrich Clark run for 35 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Wyoming vs. Colorado State?
Wyoming 38, Colorado State 17.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked CSU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| WYO | CSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 434 | Total yards | 481 |
| 165 | Passing yards | 370 |
| 269 | Rushing yards | 111 |
| 19 | First downs | 20 |
| 5-14 | 3rd down | 7-17 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 7/18 | Comp/Att | 23/42 |
| 9.2 | Yards per pass | 8.8 |
| 5.5 | Yards per rush | 3.4 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 4-30 | Penalties | 6-37 |
| 32:29 | Possession | 27:31 |
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q3 0:07WYOJosh Allen 18 Yd Run (Cooper Rothe Kick)38–17
- Q3 3:17WYOBrian Hill 1 Yd Run (Cooper Rothe Kick)31–17
- Q2 0:00CSUWyatt Bryan 36 Yd Field Goal 24–17
- Q2 1:04WYOChase Appleby 55 Yd Interception Return (Cooper Rothe Kick)24–14
- Q2 9:06WYOTanner Gentry 30 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Cooper Rothe Kick)17–14
- Q2 9:28WYOShaun Wick 5 Yd Run (Cooper Rothe Kick)10–14
- Q2 12:56CSUDetrich Clark 35 Yd Run (Wyatt Bryan Kick)3–14
- Q1 1:34CSUNolan Peralta 9 Yd pass from Collin Hill (Wyatt Bryan Kick)3–7
- Q1 9:30WYOCooper Rothe 35 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (CSU Elo 1345, WYO Elo 1215 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects CSU -7.6 (70% to win) — 2.1 points clear of CSU's market line of -5.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2016
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#44 of 113 in 2016 by biggest miss · #88 of 124 in 2016 by longest odds.
The 2016 upset archive →Colorado State leads 57–52–5 · 34% have been one-possession games
| WYO | CSU | |
|---|---|---|
| -1.1 (#66) | CORE overall | +0.1 (#63) |
| +2 / +3 | offense / defense | +6 / +5 |
| 2.29 | points / drive | 2.67 |
| 2.42 | allowed / drive | 2.43 |
| 30% | three-and-outs | 29% |
| -7 | pass over expected | -8 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →