#17Josh Allen

QB·Wyoming·20167.4 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Josh Allen is a Dual-Threat QB for Wyoming. Josh's 2016 season ranks in the 33th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 468 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Josh Allen's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2016 Production

Passing

209/373 Comp/Att3203 Pass yards28 Pass TD15 INT56.0% Comp %

Rushing

512 Rush yards7 Rush TD143 Carries3.6 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2016 · vs QB peers

Efficiency33
Volume100
Dual-Threat100
Consistency80
Clutch51

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)33th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency80th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸4 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Peak game: 0.99 EPA/play in Wk 3 vs UC Davis.

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Stetson Bennett	Georgia	2022	509	0.635	12.5	323.0

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsNorthern Illinois	W40-34	-2.4	19/29	245	2	0	87.7	70	1	0.59
2	@Nebraska	L17-52	10.3	16/32	189	1	5	38.2	7	0	-0.08
3	vsUC Davis	W45-22	—	11/15	198	3	0	97.3	18	1	0.99
4	@Eastern Michigan	L24-27	-8.2	19/29	234	0	1	59.8	2	0	0.22
5	@Colorado State	W38-17	0.8	7/18	165	1	0	71.7	55	1	0.39
6	vsAir Force	W35-26	4.4	15/27	173	3	0	82.8	74	0	0.31
8	@Nevada	W42-34	-13.0	9/13	145	0	0	88.6	52	2	—
9	vsBoise State	W30-28	11.5	18/31	274	3	1	77.5	53	0	0.40
10	vsUtah State	W52-28	-4.4	16/26	261	4	1	98.1	66	1	0.90
11	@UNLV	L66-69	-14.3	14/31	334	4	2	82.9	32	0	0.33
12	vsSan Diego State	W34-33	11.4	16/31	282	2	1	82.6	56	0	0.56
13	@New Mexico	L35-56	-5.1	18/28	248	0	0	49.3	2	1	0.30
14	vsSan Diego State	L24-27	11.4	14/31	248	3	2	23.8	-2	0	0.22
1	vsBYU	L21-24	8.0	17/32	207	2	2	47.3	27	0	0.20

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

51.4%

Passing plays

99.0%

Rushing plays

19.2%

Standard downs

39.7%

Passing downs

74.4%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.35
Passing downs: 0.41
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.32 / 0.58

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2016 · 13 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.