Skip to content
Gridpex

Upsets

Analysis

“Biggest upset” is a phrase people use without a definition, and the definition is the whole argument. Three of them here, scored before anything was ranked, and kept separate — blending them would produce a list nobody could argue with, which sounds good and is the problem.

Rank byBiggest missLongest oddsBiggest poll gap

Final margin minus the points the market spotted the winner. The purest statement that the number was wrong, and it does not care whether anyone was ranked.

SeasonAll-time20262025202420232022202120202019201820172016201520142013
#ResultDog byMissWin prob
1Iowa State over Texas Tech
66–10 · at home · 2016-11-19
+3+59.043%
2TCU over #13Baylor
62–22 · on the road · 2016-11-05
+9+49.029%
3#10Louisville over #2Florida State
63–20 · at home · 2016-09-17
+4.5+47.539%
4SMU over #11Houston
38–16 · at home · 2016-10-22
+24+46.07%
5Colorado State over San Diego State
63–31 · on the road · 2016-11-27
+12.5+44.522%
6Mississippi State over Ole Miss
55–20 · on the road · 2016-11-26
+8+43.031%
7Akron over Marshall
65–38 · on the road · 2016-09-17
+15.5+42.517%
8Nevada over UNLV
45–10 · on the road · 2016-11-26
+7+42.033%
9Arkansas State over #25Troy
35–3 · on the road · 2016-11-18
+8.5+40.530%
10UTSA over Middle Tennessee
45–25 · on the road · 2016-11-05
+19+39.012%
11Washington State over #15Stanford
42–16 · on the road · 2016-10-09
+12.5+38.522%
12Bowling Green over Kent State
42–7 · at home · 2016-11-16
+3+38.043%
13UTSA over Southern Miss
55–32 · at home · 2016-10-08
+14.5+37.518%
14Army over Temple
28–13 · on the road · 2016-09-02
+21.5+36.59%
15#25Virginia Tech over #17North Carolina
34–3 · on the road · 2016-10-08
+5.5+36.537%
16Tulsa over Memphis
59–30 · on the road · 2016-10-30
+7.5+36.532%
17Marshall over Middle Tennessee
42–17 · at home · 2016-11-13
+11.5+36.524%
18South Alabama over #19San Diego State
42–24 · at home · 2016-10-02
+17.5+35.514%
19Buffalo over Akron
41–20 · at home · 2016-10-27
+14.5+35.518%
20South Alabama over Mississippi State
21–20 · on the road · 2016-09-03
+34+35.02%
21North Texas over Army
35–18 · on the road · 2016-10-22
+17.5+34.514%
22#2Clemson over #6Ohio State
31–0 · neutral site · 2017-01-01
+3+34.043%
23#20West Virginia over Texas Tech
48–17 · on the road · 2016-10-15
+1+32.048%
24#21Oklahoma State over #17Colorado
38–8 · neutral site · 2016-12-30
+2+32.045%
25California over UCLA
36–10 · at home · 2016-11-27
+5.5+31.537%
26Richmond over Virginia
37–20 · on the road · 2016-09-03
+14+31.019%
27Syracuse over #17Virginia Tech
31–17 · at home · 2016-10-15
+17+31.014%
28Eastern Washington over Washington State
45–42 · on the road · 2016-09-04
+27.5+30.54%
29Vanderbilt over Ole Miss
38–17 · at home · 2016-11-20
+9.5+30.528%
30#11Wisconsin over #8Michigan State
30–6 · on the road · 2016-09-24
+6+30.035%
31#13Oklahoma State over TCU
31–6 · on the road · 2016-11-19
+4.5+29.539%
32UAlbany over Buffalo
22–16 · on the road · 2016-09-02
+23+29.08%
33Charlotte over Southern Miss
38–27 · on the road · 2016-11-05
+18+29.013%
34SMU over East Carolina
55–31 · on the road · 2016-11-12
+5+29.038%
35Kentucky over #11Louisville
41–38 · on the road · 2016-11-26
+26+29.05%
36#23Baylor over Boise State
31–12 · neutral site · 2016-12-28
+10+29.027%
37Southern Miss over Louisiana Tech
39–24 · at home · 2016-11-25
+13.5+28.520%
38Kansas State over TCU
30–6 · on the road · 2016-12-03
+4.5+28.539%
39North Texas over Marshall
38–21 · at home · 2016-10-08
+11+28.025%
40Stanford over Arizona
34–10 · on the road · 2016-10-30
+3+27.043%
41Arizona over Arizona State
56–35 · at home · 2016-11-26
+6+27.035%
42Tulane over UConn
38–13 · on the road · 2016-11-26
+2+27.045%
43#25San Diego State over #15Houston
34–10 · neutral site · 2016-12-17
+3+27.043%
44Wyoming over Colorado State
38–17 · on the road · 2016-10-02
+5.5+26.537%
45UL Monroe over Georgia State
37–23 · on the road · 2016-11-12
+12.5+26.522%
46Kent State over Buffalo
44–20 · on the road · 2016-10-08
+2+26.045%
47Miami (OH) over Central Michigan
37–17 · at home · 2016-11-04
+6+26.035%
48Auburn over Mississippi State
38–14 · on the road · 2016-10-08
+1.5+25.546%
49Temple over #20Navy
34–10 · on the road · 2016-12-03
+1.5+25.546%
50Hawai'i over Air Force
34–27 · on the road · 2016-10-22
+17.5+24.514%
51Arkansas over #10Florida
31–10 · at home · 2016-11-05
+3.5+24.541%
52Georgia Tech over #18Virginia Tech
30–20 · on the road · 2016-11-12
+14.5+24.518%
53UCLA over Arizona
45–24 · at home · 2016-10-02
+3+24.043%
54Minnesota over Maryland
31–10 · on the road · 2016-10-15
+3+24.043%
55Kansas over Texas
24–21 · at home · 2016-11-19
+21+24.09%
56Idaho over Colorado State
61–50 · neutral site · 2016-12-23
+13+24.021%
57Duke over Notre Dame
38–35 · on the road · 2016-09-24
+20+23.011%
58Penn State over #2Ohio State
24–21 · at home · 2016-10-23
+20+23.011%
59Navy over #6Houston
46–40 · at home · 2016-10-08
+17+23.014%
60USC over #4Washington
26–13 · on the road · 2016-11-13
+10+23.027%

What limits this archive

Two of the three measures need a closing line, and line history is dense from 2013 and thin before it. That is a hard boundary, not a soft one — an archive that quietly dropped the seasons it could not price would present the 1980s as having had no upsets. Rows with no line carry only the poll measure, and the columns show which is which.

The lines are sportsbook numbers only. FiveThirtyEight, Nate Silver, numberfire, teamrankings are excluded: they are model sites, and grading a surprise against another model’s prediction measures the disagreement between two models, not a surprise.

Win probability converts the closing spread through a normal margin with σ = 16 points, the same distribution the live win-probability model uses.