Oklahoma State vs. TCU: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
OKSTTeam statsTCU
- Q4 11:14OKSTMason Rudolph 12 Yd Run (Ben Grogan Kick)31–6
- Q3 5:25OKSTMason Rudolph 2 Yd Run (Ben Grogan Kick)24–6
- Q3 8:19OKSTChris Carson 19 Yd Run (Ben Grogan Kick)17–6
- Q2 3:34OKSTBen Grogan 27 Yd Field Goal 10–6
- Q1 0:42OKSTChris Lacy 3 Yd pass from Mason Rudolph (Ben Grogan Kick)7–6
- Q1 3:34TCUKaVontae Turpin 4 Yd pass from Kenny Hill (Brandon Hatfield PAT blocked)0–6
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- OKST played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and TCU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 7.1 vs 3rd & 5.1
- PassMason Rudolph 17/34, 207 YDS, 1 TD
- RushJustice Hill 16 CAR, 154 YDS
- RecChris Lacy 4 REC, 109 YDS, 1 TD
- PassKenny Hill 18/27, 166 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- RushKenny Hill 8 CAR, 79 YDS
- RecEmanuel Porter 4 REC, 50 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsOKST up 18 entering the 4th quarter. Across 838 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 8:19OKST +26%
Chris Carson run for 19 yds for a TD, (Ben Grogan KICK)
- Q3 5:25OKST +20%
Mason Rudolph run for 2 yds for a TD, (Ben Grogan KICK)
- Q1 0:42OKST +17%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Chris Lacy for 3 yds for a TD, (Ben Grogan KICK)
- Q1 3:34TCU +13%
Kenny Hill pass complete to KaVontae Turpin for 4 yds for a TD, (Brandon Hatfield PAT BLOCKED)
- Q2 3:34OKST +11%
Ben Grogan 27 yd FG GOOD
- Q3 11:57OKST +8%
Justice Hill run for 4 yds to the TCU 24
FAQ
What was the final score of Oklahoma State vs. TCU?
Oklahoma State 31, TCU 6.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked TCU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| OKST | TCU | |
|---|---|---|
| 541 | Total yards | 343 |
| 207 | Passing yards | 198 |
| 334 | Rushing yards | 145 |
| 28 | First downs | 18 |
| 9-16 | 3rd down | 6-16 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 1-4 |
| 17/35 | Comp/Att | 20/33 |
| 5.9 | Yards per pass | 6.0 |
| 7.4 | Yards per rush | 3.7 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 6-42 | Penalties | 4-49 |
| 30:31 | Possession | 29:29 |
Costliest call
Q1 11:23 TCU punt on 4th & 1 at TCU 40. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.09 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 11:14OKSTMason Rudolph 12 Yd Run (Ben Grogan Kick)31–6
- Q3 5:25OKSTMason Rudolph 2 Yd Run (Ben Grogan Kick)24–6
- Q3 8:19OKSTChris Carson 19 Yd Run (Ben Grogan Kick)17–6
- Q2 3:34OKSTBen Grogan 27 Yd Field Goal 10–6
- Q1 0:42OKSTChris Lacy 3 Yd pass from Mason Rudolph (Ben Grogan Kick)7–6
- Q1 3:34TCUKaVontae Turpin 4 Yd pass from Kenny Hill (Brandon Hatfield PAT blocked)0–6
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (TCU Elo 1844, OKST Elo 1710 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects TCU -7.8 (71% to win) — 2.3 points clear of TCU's market line of -5.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2016
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#31 of 113 in 2016 by biggest miss · #91 of 124 in 2016 by longest odds.
The 2016 upset archive →Oklahoma State leads 17–15–2 · TCU has won 2 straight · 56% have been one-possession games
| OKST | TCU | |
|---|---|---|
| +11.3 (#27) | CORE overall | +5.4 (#45) |
| +11 / -0 | offense / defense | -2 / -7 |
| 2.83 | points / drive | 2.10 |
| 2.10 | allowed / drive | 1.97 |
| 21% | three-and-outs | 29% |
| +7 | pass over expected | +6 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →