Tulane vs. UConn: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
TULNTeam statsCONN
- Q4 8:21TULNLazedrick Thompson 45 Yd Run (Andrew DiRocco Kick)38–13
- Q4 8:31CONNArkeel Newsome 20 Yd pass from Donovan Williams (Bobby Puyol Kick)31–13
- Q4 14:55TULNLazedrick Thompson 1 Yd Run (Andrew DiRocco Kick)31–6
- Q3 6:55CONNArkeel Newsome 62 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)24–6
- Q2 3:18TULNLazedrick Thompson 3 Yd Run (Andrew DiRocco Kick)24–0
- Q2 9:02TULNJosh Rounds 4 Yd Run (Andrew DiRocco Kick)17–0
- Q1 7:33TULNJosh Rounds 1 Yd Run (Andrew DiRocco Kick)10–0
- Q1 10:10TULNAndrew DiRocco 23 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
- PassGlen Cuiellette 11/19, 166 YDS, 1 INT
- RushLazedrick Thompson 23 CAR, 108 YDS, 3 TD
- RecTerren Encalade 2 REC, 57 YDS
- PassDonovan Williams 11/26, 104 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- RushArkeel Newsome 15 CAR, 166 YDS, 1 TD
- RecNoel Thomas 9 REC, 60 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTULN up 18 entering the 4th quarter. Across 838 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 7:33TULN +18%
Josh Rounds run for 1 yd for a TD, (Andrew DiRocco KICK)
- Q2 9:02TULN +16%
Josh Rounds run for 4 yds for a TD, (Andrew DiRocco KICK)
- Q1 10:10TULN +8%
Andrew DiRocco 23 yd FG GOOD
- Q2 3:18TULN +8%
Lazedrick Thompson run for 3 yds for a TD, (Andrew DiRocco KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Tulane vs. UConn?
Tulane 38, UConn 13.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked CONN, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| TULN | CONN | |
|---|---|---|
| 421 | Total yards | 308 |
| 166 | Passing yards | 124 |
| 255 | Rushing yards | 184 |
| 17 | First downs | 13 |
| 7-17 | 3rd down | 4-13 |
| 2-2 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 11/19 | Comp/Att | 15/31 |
| 8.7 | Yards per pass | 4.0 |
| 4.6 | Yards per rush | 7.7 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 4 |
| 5-40 | Penalties | 1-3 |
| 39:20 | Possession | 20:40 |
Costliest call
Q4 7:22 TULN punt on 4th & 6 at CONN 35. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.08 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 8:21TULNLazedrick Thompson 45 Yd Run (Andrew DiRocco Kick)38–13
- Q4 8:31CONNArkeel Newsome 20 Yd pass from Donovan Williams (Bobby Puyol Kick)31–13
- Q4 14:55TULNLazedrick Thompson 1 Yd Run (Andrew DiRocco Kick)31–6
- Q3 6:55CONNArkeel Newsome 62 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)24–6
- Q2 3:18TULNLazedrick Thompson 3 Yd Run (Andrew DiRocco Kick)24–0
- Q2 9:02TULNJosh Rounds 4 Yd Run (Andrew DiRocco Kick)17–0
- Q1 7:33TULNJosh Rounds 1 Yd Run (Andrew DiRocco Kick)10–0
- Q1 10:10TULNAndrew DiRocco 23 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (CONN Elo 1171, TULN Elo 1153 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects CONN -3.1 (59% to win) — 3.6 points clear of CONN's market line of +0.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2016
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#42 of 113 in 2016 by biggest miss · #107 of 124 in 2016 by longest odds.
The 2016 upset archive →| TULN | CONN | |
|---|---|---|
| -12.3 (#100) | CORE overall | -17.1 (#112) |
| -19 / -6 | offense / defense | -11 / +6 |
| 1.51 | points / drive | 1.04 |
| 2.01 | allowed / drive | 2.39 |
| 33% | three-and-outs | 36% |
| -17 | pass over expected | -2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →