Houston vs. Navy: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
HOUTeam statsNAVY
- Q4 1:57HOUChance Allen 17 Yd pass from Greg Ward Jr. (Ty Cummings Kick)40–46
- Q4 4:38NAVYBennett Moehring 40 Yd Field Goal 33–46
- Q4 5:39NAVYTeam Safety 33–43
- Q4 13:18HOUDillon Birden 2 Yd Run (Ty Cummings PAT blocked)33–41
- Q3 1:25NAVYBrandon Colon 34 Yd pass from Will Worth (Bennett Moehring Kick)27–41
- Q3 5:12HOUGreg Ward Jr. 8 Yd Run (Ty Cummings Kick)27–34
- Q3 10:02NAVYJosiah Powell 34 Yd Interception Return (Bennett Moehring Kick)20–34
- Q3 11:03NAVYDarryl Bonner 17 Yd pass from Will Worth (Bennett Moehring Kick)20–27
- Q2 0:00NAVYBennett Moehring 38 Yd Field Goal 20–20
- Q2 8:41HOUDillon Birden 19 Yd pass from Greg Ward Jr. (Ty Cummings Kick)20–17
- Q2 10:33NAVYWill Worth 2 Yd Run (Bennett Moehring Kick)13–17
- Q2 14:00HOUTy Cummings 36 Yd Field Goal 13–10
- Q1 2:11NAVYBennett Moehring 24 Yd Field Goal 10–10
- Q1 8:00HOUTy Cummings 39 Yd Field Goal 10–7
- Q1 10:55NAVYChris High 12 Yd Run (Bennett Moehring Kick)7–7
- Q1 11:13HOUSteven Dunbar 32 Yd pass from Greg Ward Jr. (Ty Cummings Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassGreg Ward 32/50, 359 YDS, 3 TD, 2 INT
- RushGreg Ward 17 CAR, 94 YDS, 1 TD
- RecLinell Bonner 9 REC, 117 YDS
- PassWill Worth 3/5, 76 YDS, 2 TD
- RushWill Worth 32 CAR, 115 YDS, 1 TD
- RecDarryl Bonner 2 REC, 42 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsNAVY up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 11:03NAVY +26%
Darryl Bonner 17 Yd pass from Will Worth (Bennett Moehring Kick)
- Q3 1:25NAVY +25%
Brandon Colon 34 Yd pass from Will Worth (Bennett Moehring Kick)
- Q3 5:12HOU +21%
Greg Ward Jr. 8 Yd Run (Ty Cummings Kick)
- Q2 8:41HOU +20%
Dillon Birden 19 Yd pass from Greg Ward Jr. (Ty Cummings Kick)
- Q3 10:02NAVY +20%
Josiah Powell 34 Yd Interception Return (Bennett Moehring Kick)
- Q2 10:33NAVY +19%
Will Worth 2 Yd Run (Bennett Moehring Kick)
FAQ
What was the final score of Houston vs. Navy?
Houston 40, Navy 46.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked HOU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| HOU | NAVY | |
|---|---|---|
| 484 | Total yards | 382 |
| 359 | Passing yards | 76 |
| 125 | Rushing yards | 306 |
| 28 | First downs | 20 |
| 7-16 | 3rd down | 6-15 |
| 4-5 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 32/50 | Comp/Att | 3/5 |
| 7.2 | Yards per pass | 15.2 |
| 3.8 | Yards per rush | 4.9 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 4-30 | Penalties | 1-5 |
| 25:16 | Possession | 34:44 |
Costliest call
Q1 2:11 NAVY field goal on 4th & 3 at HOU 7. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.28 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:57HOUChance Allen 17 Yd pass from Greg Ward Jr. (Ty Cummings Kick)40–46
- Q4 4:38NAVYBennett Moehring 40 Yd Field Goal 33–46
- Q4 5:39NAVYTeam Safety 33–43
- Q4 13:18HOUDillon Birden 2 Yd Run (Ty Cummings PAT blocked)33–41
- Q3 1:25NAVYBrandon Colon 34 Yd pass from Will Worth (Bennett Moehring Kick)27–41
- Q3 5:12HOUGreg Ward Jr. 8 Yd Run (Ty Cummings Kick)27–34
- Q3 10:02NAVYJosiah Powell 34 Yd Interception Return (Bennett Moehring Kick)20–34
- Q3 11:03NAVYDarryl Bonner 17 Yd pass from Will Worth (Bennett Moehring Kick)20–27
- Q2 0:00NAVYBennett Moehring 38 Yd Field Goal 20–20
- Q2 8:41HOUDillon Birden 19 Yd pass from Greg Ward Jr. (Ty Cummings Kick)20–17
- Q2 10:33NAVYWill Worth 2 Yd Run (Bennett Moehring Kick)13–17
- Q2 14:00HOUTy Cummings 36 Yd Field Goal 13–10
- Q1 2:11NAVYBennett Moehring 24 Yd Field Goal 10–10
- Q1 8:00HOUTy Cummings 39 Yd Field Goal 10–7
- Q1 10:55NAVYChris High 12 Yd Run (Bennett Moehring Kick)7–7
- Q1 11:13HOUSteven Dunbar 32 Yd pass from Greg Ward Jr. (Ty Cummings Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (NAVY Elo 1605, HOU Elo 1951 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects NAVY +11.4 (23% to win) — 4.6 points clear of NAVY's market line of +16. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2016
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#59 of 113 in 2016 by biggest miss · #21 of 124 in 2016 by longest odds · #6 of 61 in 2016 by biggest poll gap.
The 2016 upset archive →Houston leads 7–2 · Houston has won 3 straight · 22% have been one-possession games
| HOU | NAVY | |
|---|---|---|
| +9.5 (#31) | CORE overall | +1.0 (#58) |
| +1 / -9 | offense / defense | +13 / +12 |
| 2.35 | points / drive | 3.61 |
| 1.66 | allowed / drive | 3.07 |
| 30% | three-and-outs | 21% |
| +6 | pass over expected | -24 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →