Idaho vs. Colorado State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
IDAHTeam statsCSU
- Q4 0:29CSUIzzy Matthews 1 Yd Run (Nick Stevens Pass to Olabisi Johnson for Two-Point Conversion)61–50
- Q4 1:07CSUDalyn Dawkins 22 Yd Run (Wyatt Bryan Kick)61–42
- Q4 5:29CSUMichael Gallup 3 Yd pass from Nick Stevens (Wyatt Bryan Kick)61–35
- Q4 7:40IDAHIsaiah Saunders 12 Yd Run (Austin Rehkow PAT failed)61–28
- Q4 9:06CSUMichael Gallup 60 Yd pass from Nick Stevens (Wyatt Bryan Kick)55–28
- Q4 9:27IDAHJordan Frysinger 54 Yd pass from Matt Linehan (Austin Rehkow Kick)55–21
- Q4 12:21CSUOlabisi Johnson 73 Yd pass from Nick Stevens (Wyatt Bryan Kick)48–21
- Q4 12:56IDAHAaron Duckworth 5 Yd Run (Austin Rehkow Kick)48–14
- Q3 1:43CSUMichael Gallup 12 Yd pass from Nick Stevens (Wyatt Bryan Kick)41–14
- Q3 3:16IDAHJacob Sannon 16 Yd pass from Matt Linehan (Austin Rehkow Kick)41–7
- Q3 8:13IDAHDeon Watson 74 Yd pass from Matt Linehan (Austin Rehkow Kick)34–7
- Q3 11:12IDAHMatt Linehan 7 Yd Run (Austin Rehkow Kick)27–7
- Q2 0:24IDAHJacob Sannon 6 Yd pass from Matt Linehan (Austin Rehkow Kick)20–7
- Q2 9:59IDAHIsaiah Saunders 26 Yd Run (Austin Rehkow Kick)13–7
- Q2 12:03IDAHIsaiah Saunders 2 Yd Run (Austin Rehkow PAT failed)6–7
- Q2 14:35CSUOlabisi Johnson 52 Yd pass from Nick Stevens (Wyatt Bryan Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassMatt Linehan 21/31, 381 YDS, 4 TD
- RushIsaiah Saunders 33 CAR, 147 YDS, 3 TD
- RecDeon Watson 5 REC, 140 YDS, 1 TD
- PassNick Stevens 21/36, 445 YDS, 5 TD, 2 INT
- RushDalyn Dawkins 16 CAR, 118 YDS, 1 TD
- RecBisi Johnson 7 REC, 265 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsIDAH up 27 entering the 4th quarter. Across 532 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 0:24IDAH +24%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Jacob Sannon for 6 yds for a TD, (Austin Rehkow KICK)
- Q2 9:59IDAH +20%
Isaiah Saunders run for 26 yds for a TD, (Austin Rehkow KICK)
- Q3 11:12IDAH +15%
Matt Linehan run for 7 yds for a TD, (Austin Rehkow KICK)
- Q2 14:35CSU +13%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Olabisi Johnson for 52 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)
- Q2 12:03IDAH +12%
Isaiah Saunders run for 2 yds for a TD, (Austin Rehkow PAT MISSED)
- Q3 12:44IDAH +7%
Matt Linehan pass incomplete
FAQ
What was the final score of Idaho vs. Colorado State?
Idaho 61, Colorado State 50.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked CSU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| IDAH | CSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 606 | Total yards | 600 |
| 381 | Passing yards | 445 |
| 225 | Rushing yards | 155 |
| 30 | First downs | 25 |
| 7-16 | 3rd down | 4-11 |
| 2-2 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 21/31 | Comp/Att | 21/36 |
| 12.3 | Yards per pass | 12.4 |
| 4.4 | Yards per rush | 5.2 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 7-69 | Penalties | 10-92 |
| 36:05 | Possession | 23:55 |
Costliest call
Q2 2:07 IDAH go for it on 4th & 6 at CSU 33. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.21 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:29CSUIzzy Matthews 1 Yd Run (Nick Stevens Pass to Olabisi Johnson for Two-Point Conversion)61–50
- Q4 1:07CSUDalyn Dawkins 22 Yd Run (Wyatt Bryan Kick)61–42
- Q4 5:29CSUMichael Gallup 3 Yd pass from Nick Stevens (Wyatt Bryan Kick)61–35
- Q4 7:40IDAHIsaiah Saunders 12 Yd Run (Austin Rehkow PAT failed)61–28
- Q4 9:06CSUMichael Gallup 60 Yd pass from Nick Stevens (Wyatt Bryan Kick)55–28
- Q4 9:27IDAHJordan Frysinger 54 Yd pass from Matt Linehan (Austin Rehkow Kick)55–21
- Q4 12:21CSUOlabisi Johnson 73 Yd pass from Nick Stevens (Wyatt Bryan Kick)48–21
- Q4 12:56IDAHAaron Duckworth 5 Yd Run (Austin Rehkow Kick)48–14
- Q3 1:43CSUMichael Gallup 12 Yd pass from Nick Stevens (Wyatt Bryan Kick)41–14
- Q3 3:16IDAHJacob Sannon 16 Yd pass from Matt Linehan (Austin Rehkow Kick)41–7
- Q3 8:13IDAHDeon Watson 74 Yd pass from Matt Linehan (Austin Rehkow Kick)34–7
- Q3 11:12IDAHMatt Linehan 7 Yd Run (Austin Rehkow Kick)27–7
- Q2 0:24IDAHJacob Sannon 6 Yd pass from Matt Linehan (Austin Rehkow Kick)20–7
- Q2 9:59IDAHIsaiah Saunders 26 Yd Run (Austin Rehkow Kick)13–7
- Q2 12:03IDAHIsaiah Saunders 2 Yd Run (Austin Rehkow PAT failed)6–7
- Q2 14:35CSUOlabisi Johnson 52 Yd pass from Nick Stevens (Wyatt Bryan Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (CSU Elo 1612, IDAH Elo 1320 for reference), on a neutral field. That projects CSU -11.7 (79% to win) — 3.3 points clear of IDAH's market line of -15. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2016
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#56 of 113 in 2016 by biggest miss · #41 of 124 in 2016 by longest odds.
The 2016 upset archive →The series is level at 4–4 · 50% have been one-possession games
| IDAH | CSU | |
|---|---|---|
| -8.6 (#94) | CORE overall | +0.1 (#63) |
| -5 / +4 | offense / defense | +6 / +5 |
| 2.42 | points / drive | 2.67 |
| 2.36 | allowed / drive | 2.43 |
| 23% | three-and-outs | 29% |
| +4 | pass over expected | -8 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →