USC vs. Washington: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
USCTeam statsWASH
- Q4 0:58USCTeam Safety 26–13
- Q4 13:33USCDaniel Imatorbhebhe 8 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Matt Boermeester Kick)24–13
- Q3 8:23WASHJohn Ross 70 Yd pass from Jake Browning (Cameron Van Winkle Kick)17–13
- Q2 0:28USCRonald Jones II 4 Yd Run (Matt Boermeester Kick)17–6
- Q2 2:34WASHCameron Van Winkle 39 Yd Field Goal 10–6
- Q2 8:51USCDarreus Rogers 13 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Matt Boermeester Kick)10–3
- Q1 0:41USCMatt Boermeester 38 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q1 3:58WASHCameron Van Winkle 43 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- USC lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 14% explosive on a 39% success rate
- PassSam Darnold 23/33, 287 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
- RushRonald Jones 23 CAR, 93 YDS, 1 TD
- RecDarreus Rogers 6 REC, 84 YDS, 1 TD
- PassJake Browning 17/36, 259 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- RushMyles Gaskin 15 CAR, 51 YDS
- RecJohn Ross 8 REC, 154 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUSC up 4 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,449 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 13:33USC +30%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Daniel Imatorbhebhe for 8 yds for a TD, (Matt Boermeester KICK)
- Q3 8:23WASH +27%
Jake Browning pass complete to John Ross for 70 yds for a TD, (Cameron Van Winkle KICK)
- Q2 0:28USC +25%
Ronald Jones II run for 4 yds for a TD, (Matt Boermeester KICK)
- Q2 8:51USC +22%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Darreus Rogers for 13 yds for a TD, (Matt Boermeester KICK)
- Q4 14:02USC +16%
Justin Davis run for a loss of 1 yard to the Wash 8
- Q2 2:34WASH +9%
Cameron Van Winkle 39 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of USC vs. Washington?
USC 26, Washington 13.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked WASH, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| USC | WASH | |
|---|---|---|
| 400 | Total yards | 276 |
| 287 | Passing yards | 259 |
| 113 | Rushing yards | 17 |
| 21 | First downs | 13 |
| 7-13 | 3rd down | 6-17 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 2-2 |
| 23/33 | Comp/Att | 17/37 |
| 8.7 | Yards per pass | 7.0 |
| 3.1 | Yards per rush | 0.6 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 6-40 | Penalties | 3-35 |
| 32:37 | Possession | 27:23 |
Costliest call
Q4 4:17 USC punt on 4th & 1 at midfield. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.57 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:58USCTeam Safety 26–13
- Q4 13:33USCDaniel Imatorbhebhe 8 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Matt Boermeester Kick)24–13
- Q3 8:23WASHJohn Ross 70 Yd pass from Jake Browning (Cameron Van Winkle Kick)17–13
- Q2 0:28USCRonald Jones II 4 Yd Run (Matt Boermeester Kick)17–6
- Q2 2:34WASHCameron Van Winkle 39 Yd Field Goal 10–6
- Q2 8:51USCDarreus Rogers 13 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Matt Boermeester Kick)10–3
- Q1 0:41USCMatt Boermeester 38 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q1 3:58WASHCameron Van Winkle 43 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (WASH Elo 2085, USC Elo 1845 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects WASH -12 (79% to win) — 3.0 points clear of WASH's market line of -9. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2016
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#60 of 113 in 2016 by biggest miss · #65 of 124 in 2016 by longest odds · #5 of 61 in 2016 by biggest poll gap.
The 2016 upset archive →USC leads 52–32–4 · Washington has won 3 straight · 42% have been one-possession games
| USC | WASH | |
|---|---|---|
| +21.2 (#11) | CORE overall | +33.4 (#2) |
| +15 / -7 | offense / defense | +16 / -17 |
| 2.63 | points / drive | 3.21 |
| 1.76 | allowed / drive | 1.29 |
| 21% | three-and-outs | 22% |
| +5 | pass over expected | +6 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →