Oklahoma State vs. Colorado: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
OKSTTeam statsCOLO
- Q4 3:44OKSTJustice Hill 37 Yd Run (Ben Grogan Kick)38–8
- Q4 5:28COLOSefo Liufau 6 Yd Run (Sefo Liufau Pass to Phillip Lindsay for Two-Point Conversion)31–8
- Q3 0:05OKSTJhajuan Seales 23 Yd pass from Mason Rudolph (Ben Grogan Kick)31–0
- Q3 5:42OKSTBlake Jarwin 6 Yd pass from Mason Rudolph (Ben Grogan Kick)24–0
- Q2 7:00OKSTJames Washington 5 Yd pass from Mason Rudolph (Ben Grogan Kick)17–0
- Q2 11:15OKSTChris Carson 10 Yd Run (Ben Grogan Kick)10–0
- Q1 10:17OKSTBen Grogan 28 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- COLO played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and OKST did not face the same ones. 3rd & 7.5 vs 3rd & 4.9
- PassMason Rudolph 22/32, 314 YDS, 3 TD
- RushJustice Hill 19 CAR, 100 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJames Washington 9 REC, 171 YDS, 1 TD
- PassSefo Liufau 18/29, 195 YDS
- RushPhillip Lindsay 14 CAR, 63 YDS
- RecPhillip Lindsay 6 REC, 103 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsOKST up 31 entering the 4th quarter. Across 343 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 11:15OKST +17%
Chris Carson run for 10 yds for a TD, (Ben Grogan KICK)
- Q2 7:00OKST +11%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to James Washington for 5 yds for a TD, (Ben Grogan KICK)
- Q1 10:17OKST +8%
Ben Grogan 28 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Oklahoma State vs. Colorado?
Oklahoma State 38, Colorado 8.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (OKST) was correct.
| OKST | COLO | |
|---|---|---|
| 527 | Total yards | 318 |
| 338 | Passing yards | 256 |
| 189 | Rushing yards | 62 |
| 24 | First downs | 18 |
| 7-14 | 3rd down | 6-16 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 1-3 |
| 23/33 | Comp/Att | 22/38 |
| 10.2 | Yards per pass | 6.7 |
| 4.6 | Yards per rush | 2.1 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 5-42 | Penalties | 5-35 |
| 32:24 | Possession | 27:36 |
Costliest call
Q1 8:09 COLO punt on 4th & 2 at COLO 48. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.88 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 3:44OKSTJustice Hill 37 Yd Run (Ben Grogan Kick)38–8
- Q4 5:28COLOSefo Liufau 6 Yd Run (Sefo Liufau Pass to Phillip Lindsay for Two-Point Conversion)31–8
- Q3 0:05OKSTJhajuan Seales 23 Yd pass from Mason Rudolph (Ben Grogan Kick)31–0
- Q3 5:42OKSTBlake Jarwin 6 Yd pass from Mason Rudolph (Ben Grogan Kick)24–0
- Q2 7:00OKSTJames Washington 5 Yd pass from Mason Rudolph (Ben Grogan Kick)17–0
- Q2 11:15OKSTChris Carson 10 Yd Run (Ben Grogan Kick)10–0
- Q1 10:17OKSTBen Grogan 28 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (COLO Elo 1718, OKST Elo 1772 for reference), on a neutral field. That projects COLO +2.2 (45% to win) — 4.7 points clear of OKST's market line of -2.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2016
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#24 of 113 in 2016 by biggest miss · #106 of 124 in 2016 by longest odds · #58 of 61 in 2016 by biggest poll gap.
The 2016 upset archive →Colorado leads 27–20–1 · 33% have been one-possession games
| OKST | COLO | |
|---|---|---|
| +11.3 (#27) | CORE overall | +13.8 (#19) |
| +11 / -0 | offense / defense | -1 / -14 |
| 2.83 | points / drive | 1.81 |
| 2.10 | allowed / drive | 1.55 |
| 21% | three-and-outs | 28% |
| +7 | pass over expected | +2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →