Tulsa vs. Memphis: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
TLSATeam statsMEM
- Q4 5:11TLSARaymond Taylor 31 Yd Run (Redford Jones Kick)59–30
- Q4 13:49TLSAJames Flanders 7 Yd Run (Redford Jones Kick)52–30
- Q3 3:06TLSAJames Flanders 48 Yd Run (Redford Jones Kick)45–30
- Q3 7:12TLSARedford Jones 34 Yd Field Goal 38–30
- Q3 11:27MEMAnthony Miller 3 Yd pass from Riley Ferguson (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)35–30
- Q2 1:31MEMJake Elliott 40 Yd Field Goal 35–24
- Q2 2:31TLSAKeevan Lucas 5 Yd pass from Dane Evans (Redford Jones Kick)35–21
- Q2 6:01MEMKedarian Jones 12 Yd pass from Riley Ferguson (Jake Elliott Kick)28–21
- Q2 8:03TLSAJames Flanders 1 Yd Run (Redford Jones Kick)28–14
- Q2 11:23MEMAnthony Miller 59 Yd pass from Riley Ferguson (Jake Elliott Kick)21–14
- Q2 12:32TLSAKeevan Lucas 25 Yd pass from Dane Evans (Redford Jones Kick)21–7
- Q1 7:57MEMDarrell Henderson 6 Yd Run (Jake Elliott Kick)14–7
- Q1 9:29TLSAJames Flanders 52 Yd Run (Redford Jones Kick)14–0
- Q1 11:42TLSAJames Flanders 14 Yd Run (Redford Jones Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- MEM played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and TLSA did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.5 vs 3rd & 5.6
- MEM lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 16% explosive on a 38% success rate
- PassDane Evans 20/33, 234 YDS, 2 TD
- RushJames Flanders 33 CAR, 249 YDS, 5 TD
- RecKeevan Lucas 9 REC, 91 YDS, 2 TD
- PassRiley Ferguson 19/40, 349 YDS, 3 TD, 2 INT
- RushPatrick Taylor Jr. 15 CAR, 92 YDS
- RecAnthony Miller 12 REC, 250 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTLSA up 15 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,206 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 3:06TLSA +31%
James Flanders run for 48 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)
- Q2 2:31TLSA +25%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 5 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)
- Q2 12:32TLSA +24%
Dane Evans pass complete to Keevan Lucas for 25 yds for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)
- Q2 8:03TLSA +21%
James Flanders run for 1 yd for a TD, (Redford Jones KICK)
- Q2 6:01MEM +20%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Kedarian Jones for 12 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)
- Q2 11:23MEM +20%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for 59 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Tulsa vs. Memphis?
Tulsa 59, Memphis 30.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked MEM, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| TLSA | MEM | |
|---|---|---|
| 596 | Total yards | 508 |
| 234 | Passing yards | 349 |
| 362 | Rushing yards | 159 |
| 29 | First downs | 22 |
| 10-16 | 3rd down | 9-20 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 2-2 |
| 20/33 | Comp/Att | 19/40 |
| 7.1 | Yards per pass | 8.7 |
| 6.7 | Yards per rush | 3.8 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 4 |
| 7-63 | Penalties | 12-98 |
| 33:24 | Possession | 26:36 |
Costliest call
Q3 6:21 TLSA punt on 4th & 3 at midfield. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.65 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 5:11TLSARaymond Taylor 31 Yd Run (Redford Jones Kick)59–30
- Q4 13:49TLSAJames Flanders 7 Yd Run (Redford Jones Kick)52–30
- Q3 3:06TLSAJames Flanders 48 Yd Run (Redford Jones Kick)45–30
- Q3 7:12TLSARedford Jones 34 Yd Field Goal 38–30
- Q3 11:27MEMAnthony Miller 3 Yd pass from Riley Ferguson (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)35–30
- Q2 1:31MEMJake Elliott 40 Yd Field Goal 35–24
- Q2 2:31TLSAKeevan Lucas 5 Yd pass from Dane Evans (Redford Jones Kick)35–21
- Q2 6:01MEMKedarian Jones 12 Yd pass from Riley Ferguson (Jake Elliott Kick)28–21
- Q2 8:03TLSAJames Flanders 1 Yd Run (Redford Jones Kick)28–14
- Q2 11:23MEMAnthony Miller 59 Yd pass from Riley Ferguson (Jake Elliott Kick)21–14
- Q2 12:32TLSAKeevan Lucas 25 Yd pass from Dane Evans (Redford Jones Kick)21–7
- Q1 7:57MEMDarrell Henderson 6 Yd Run (Jake Elliott Kick)14–7
- Q1 9:29TLSAJames Flanders 52 Yd Run (Redford Jones Kick)14–0
- Q1 11:42TLSAJames Flanders 14 Yd Run (Redford Jones Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MEM Elo 1744, TLSA Elo 1475 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MEM -13.2 (81% to win) — 6.7 points clear of MEM's market line of -6.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2016
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#16 of 113 in 2016 by biggest miss · #76 of 124 in 2016 by longest odds.
The 2016 upset archive →Memphis leads 21–12 · Memphis has won 2 straight · 39% have been one-possession games
| TLSA | MEM | |
|---|---|---|
| +7.1 (#39) | CORE overall | +3.1 (#54) |
| +6 / -2 | offense / defense | +8 / +5 |
| 2.65 | points / drive | 2.73 |
| 2.08 | allowed / drive | 2.12 |
| 24% | three-and-outs | 22% |
| -5 | pass over expected | +6 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →