#6Patrick Taylor Jr.

RB·Memphis·2018 20173.0 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Patrick Taylor Jr. is a 2-year Explosive Back for Memphis. Patrick's 2018 season ranks in the 43th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 217 plays — a developing rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Patrick Taylor Jr.'s projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2018 Production

Rushing

1112 Rush yards16 Rush TD205 Carries5.4 Yards/carry

Receiving

17 Receptions197 Rec yards2 Rec TD11.6 Yards/rec

Returns

1 Kick returns4 KR yards0 KR TD

Performance Analysis · 2018 · vs RB peers

Efficiency43
Volume63
Explosiveness48
Consistency48
Receiving49

Player type

Explosive Back

Elite per-carry efficiency — breaks big runs and creates chunk plays at a top rate while in a limited role.

Big-play threatHigh EPA per carryCapitalises on opportunities

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)43th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency48th %ile · average

Key findings

▸3 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.11 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 1.32 EPA/play in Wk 6 vs UConn (SP+ -26).

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9
Dalvin Cook	Florida State	2016	292	0.340	4.3	99.3
James Flanders	Tulsa	2016	266	0.390	4.9	103.7
Travis Etienne	Clemson	2019	213	0.470	4.7	100.1
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2017	240	0.410	5.2	98.4

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	vsMercer	W66-14	—	9	52	5.8	1	1	75	1	1.10
2	@Navy	L21-22	-10.2	7	28	4.0	0	2	8	0	-0.22
3	vsGeorgia State	W59-22	-20.4	5	15	3.0	0	2	35	0	0.19
4	vsSouth Alabama	W52-35	-17.7	17	75	4.4	2	—	—	—	0.26
5	@Tulane	L24-40	-3.5	2	6	3.0	0	—	—	—	-0.29
6	vsUConn	W55-14	-26.4	11	161	14.6	3	1	12	0	1.32
7	vsUCF	L30-31	16.5	11	47	4.3	0	—	—	—	-0.21
8	@Missouri	L33-65	20.8	24	105	4.4	2	—	—	—	0.08
10	@East Carolina	W59-41	-14.9	16	59	3.7	1	1	1	0	0.17
11	vsTulsa	W47-21	-11.2	20	96	4.8	1	—	—	—	0.04
12	@SMU	W28-18	-5.4	20	111	5.6	2	2	19	0	0.38
13	vsHouston	W52-31	2.3	19	128	6.7	2	3	23	0	0.43
14	@UCF	L41-56	16.5	15	118	7.9	1	4	23	0	0.11
1	vsWake Forest	L34-37	3.6	29	111	3.8	1	1	1	1	0.22

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

22.1%

Passing plays

6.0%

Rushing plays

34.5%

Standard downs

25.9%

Passing downs

13.1%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.23
Passing downs: 0.46
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.45 / 0.24

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2017 — 2018 · 26 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2017	Memphis	2.3	0.330	—	49.8
2018	Memphis	3.0	0.340	+0.01	71.4

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.