#6Patrick Taylor Jr.

RB·Memphis·2018 20172.3 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Patrick Taylor Jr. is a 2-year Explosive Back for Memphis. Patrick's 2017 season ranks in the 50th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 170 plays — a average rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Patrick Taylor Jr.'s projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2017 Production

Rushing

866 Rush yards13 Rush TD157 Carries5.5 Yards/carry

Receiving

19 Receptions148 Rec yards1 Rec TD7.8 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2017 · vs RB peers

Efficiency50
Volume61
Explosiveness50
Consistency46
Receiving45

Player type

Explosive Back

Elite per-carry efficiency — breaks big runs and creates chunk plays at a top rate while in a limited role.

Big-play threatHigh EPA per carryCapitalises on opportunities

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)50th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency46th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.08 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 1.76 EPA/play in Wk 13 vs East Carolina (SP+ -14).

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Travis Etienne	Clemson	2019	213	0.470	4.7	100.1
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2017	240	0.410	5.2	98.4
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	LSU	2019	216	0.490	5.0	105.8
James Flanders	Tulsa	2016	266	0.390	4.9	103.7

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	vsUL Monroe	W37-29	-12.9	15	131	8.7	1	1	3	0	0.53
3	vsUCLA	W48-45	4.9	12	39	3.3	0	1	47	1	-0.10
4	vsSouthern Illinois	W44-31	—	16	77	4.8	1	2	27	0	0.22
5	@UCF	L13-40	14.1	9	29	3.2	1	3	10	0	0.10
7	vsNavy	W30-27	-0.7	5	31	6.2	0	—	—	—	0.30
8	@Houston	W42-38	7.7	14	39	2.8	4	3	21	0	0.40
9	vsTulane	W56-26	-5.7	14	50	3.6	0	—	—	—	-0.30
10	@Tulsa	W41-14	-10.7	12	56	4.7	1	1	-4	0	0.33
12	vsSMU	W66-45	-2.9	18	112	6.2	2	1	-1	0	0.26
13	vsEast Carolina	W70-13	-14.0	6	127	21.2	2	—	—	—	1.76
14	@UCF	L55-62	14.1	19	107	5.6	1	3	11	0	0.11
1	vsIowa State	L20-21	7.5	17	68	4.0	0	4	34	0	-0.21

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

21.2%

Passing plays

5.3%

Rushing plays

40.3%

Standard downs

24.5%

Passing downs

14.0%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.21
Passing downs: 0.07
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.28 / 0.16

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2017 — 2018 · 26 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2017	Memphis	2.3	0.330	—	49.8
2018	Memphis	3.0	0.340	+0.01	71.4

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.