#4Riley Ferguson

QB·Memphis·2017 201611.0 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Riley Ferguson is a 2-year Dual-Threat QB for Memphis. Riley's 2017 season ranks in the 73th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 504 plays — a average rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Riley Ferguson's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2017 Production

Passing

299/474 Comp/Att4257 Pass yards38 Pass TD9 INT63.1% Comp %

Rushing

22 Rush yards6 Rush TD54 Carries0.4 Yards/carry

Punting

1 Punts32 Punt yards32.0 Yards/punt32 Long0 Inside 20

Performance Analysis · 2017 · vs QB peers

Efficiency73
Volume100
Dual-Threat100
Consistency75
Clutch100

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)73th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency75th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸8 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.36 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 1.70 EPA/play in Wk 13 vs East Carolina (SP+ -14).

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Stetson Bennett	Georgia	2022	509	0.635	12.5	323.0
Tanner Mordecai	SMU	2021	510	0.630	14.0	321.5
Ryan Higgins	Louisiana Tech	2016	571	0.586	13.7	334.6
Kyle McCord	Syracuse	2024	632	0.509	12.1	321.4
Trace McSorley	Penn State	2017	626	0.513	12.7	321.0

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsUL Monroe	W37-29	-12.9	10/25	97	0	1	18.2	9	1	-0.06
3	vsUCLA	W48-45	4.9	23/38	398	6	1	86.0	-4	0	0.77
4	vsSouthern Illinois	W44-31	—	22/36	288	2	0	82.4	23	0	0.49
5	@UCF	L13-40	14.1	27/49	321	1	3	19.2	-20	0	0.03
6	@UConn	W70-31	-19.2	34/48	431	7	0	91.7	-11	0	0.67
7	vsNavy	W30-27	-0.7	24/40	279	3	0	52.7	-6	0	0.30
8	@Houston	W42-38	7.7	33/53	471	1	1	71.7	-6	0	0.23
9	vsTulane	W56-26	-5.7	18/31	298	3	1	83.2	18	2	0.64
10	@Tulsa	W41-14	-10.7	27/39	298	4	0	82.3	2	0	0.40
12	vsSMU	W66-45	-2.9	21/27	320	2	1	97.1	29	3	0.95
13	vsEast Carolina	W70-13	-14.0	9/13	299	3	0	98.4	14	0	1.70
14	@UCF	L55-62	14.1	30/42	471	4	1	85.3	-5	0	0.43
1	vsIowa State	L20-21	7.5	21/33	286	2	0	50.1	-21	0	0.26

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

55.3%

Passing plays

97.4%

Rushing plays

8.3%

Standard downs

48.7%

Passing downs

69.7%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.30
Passing downs: 0.69
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.46 / 0.46

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2016 — 2017 · 26 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2016	Memphis	9.5	0.520	—	238.2
2017	Memphis	11.0	0.540	+0.02	265.1

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.