#4Riley Ferguson

QB·Memphis·2017 20169.5 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Riley Ferguson is a 2-year Clutch Passer for Memphis. Riley's 2016 season ranks in the 48th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 496 plays — a average rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Riley Ferguson's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2016 Production

Passing

280/443 Comp/Att3698 Pass yards32 Pass TD10 INT63.2% Comp %

Rushing

-70 Rush yards4 Rush TD71 Carries-1.0 Yards/carry

Punting

1 Punts41 Punt yards41.0 Yards/punt41 Long0 Inside 20

Performance Analysis · 2016 · vs QB peers

Efficiency48
Volume100
Dual-Threat49
Consistency76
Clutch92

Player type

Clutch Passer

Elevates on passing downs — 3rd-and-medium, two-minute drills, and pressure situations are where this QB is best.

3rd-down precisionLate-game valueHigh passing-down EPA

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)48th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency76th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸4 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.21 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 1.13 EPA/play in Wk 4 vs Bowling Green (SP+ -7).

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Stetson Bennett	Georgia	2022	509	0.635	12.5	323.0
Kyle McCord	Syracuse	2024	632	0.509	12.1	321.4
Sam Hartman	Wake Forest	2021	647	0.556	11.8	359.6
Trace McSorley	Penn State	2017	626	0.513	12.7	321.0
Ryan Higgins	Louisiana Tech	2016	571	0.586	13.7	334.6

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsSoutheast Missouri State	W35-17	—	26/40	295	3	2	54.6	-11	0	0.28
3	vsKansas	W43-7	-15.9	15/24	189	2	0	31.5	-26	0	-0.07
4	vsBowling Green	W77-3	-6.6	20/27	359	6	0	93.3	-10	1	1.13
5	@Ole Miss	L28-48	12.4	30/46	343	0	3	54.8	3	2	0.23
6	vsTemple	W34-27	11.9	17/26	174	0	0	38.6	-8	0	0.15
7	@Tulane	W24-14	-14.6	21/34	236	1	1	22.5	-15	0	0.01
8	@Navy	L28-42	6.8	25/40	333	2	0	75.2	-11	0	0.27
9	vsTulsa	L30-59	7.4	19/40	349	3	2	50.2	-33	0	0.38
10	@SMU	W51-7	-10.8	20/27	287	4	0	76.1	-9	0	0.75
11	vsSouth Florida	L42-49	9.8	29/46	331	3	1	73.8	41	1	0.38
12	@Cincinnati	W34-7	-3.6	3/5	21	0	0	82.7	10	0	0.56
13	vsHouston	W48-44	10.1	30/45	409	4	0	78.1	5	0	0.58
1	vsWestern Kentucky	L31-51	15.5	25/43	372	4	1	59.8	-6	0	0.34

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

52.0%

Passing plays

92.7%

Rushing plays

9.2%

Standard downs

49.1%

Passing downs

58.1%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.25
Passing downs: 0.51
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.36 / 0.14

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2016 — 2017 · 26 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2016	Memphis	9.5	0.520	—	238.2
2017	Memphis	11.0	0.540	+0.02	265.1

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.