Boise State vs. Baylor: Final Score, Recap & Advanced Stats

Boise State10-2

Baylor6-6

▸

Final

Chase FieldNeutral site

	1	2	3	4	T
BOIS	0	6	0	6	12
BAY	7	14	3	7	31

BOISTeam statsBAY

388Total yards515

305Pass375

83Rush140

25First downs29

8-193rd down8-15

3Turnovers1

32:55Possession27:05

Q4 1:20BOISCedrick Wilson 28 Yd pass from Brett Rypien (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)12–31
Q4 10:03BAYIshmael Zamora 14 Yd pass from Zach Smith (Chris Callahan Kick)6–31
Q3 3:18BAYChris Callahan 34 Yd Field Goal 6–24
Q2 0:11BOISTyler Rausa 26 Yd Field Goal 6–21
Q2 4:19BAYJaMycal Hasty 5 Yd Run (Chris Callahan Kick)3–21
Q2 12:14BAYKD Cannon 68 Yd pass from Zach Smith (Chris Callahan Kick)3–14
Q2 13:40BOISTyler Rausa 24 Yd Field Goal 3–7
Q1 5:53BAYKD Cannon 30 Yd pass from Zach Smith (Chris Callahan Kick)0–7

How the model called it

Model line

BOIS −8.4

market BOIS −8

Biggest swing

BAY +21%

Q2 12:14

Against the number

BAY covered

line BOIS −8

BAY favored ↑50%BOIS favored ↓

GridpexBAY 100%

Closing line

BOIS −8

Closing total

70.5

Model line

BOIS −8.4

Actual result

BOIS 12 – 31 BAY

consensus, liveBOIS −102.0 toward BOIS

Boise State

PassBrett Rypien 32/51, 305 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
RushJeremy McNichols 19 CAR, 46 YDS
RecCedrick Wilson Jr. 6 REC, 88 YDS, 1 TD

Baylor

PassZach Smith 28/39, 375 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
RushTerence Williams 25 CAR, 103 YDS
RecKD Cannon 14 REC, 226 YDS, 2 TD

20.2sper snap · faster the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

175

Points / snap

0.25

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

BAY up 18 entering the 4th quarter. Across 838 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

97%

BAY went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WWisconsin vs Buffalo38-17 WKansas State vs Troy42-13 WTCU vs Nicholls41-6 WLafayette vs Columbia24-3 WTulane vs Southern Miss21-3

Q2 12:14BAY +21%
Zach Smith pass complete to KD Cannon for 68 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)
Q1 5:53BAY +19%
Zach Smith pass complete to KD Cannon for 30 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)
Q2 4:19BAY +17%
JaMycal Hasty run for 5 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)
Q2 13:40BOIS +9%
Tyler Rausa 24 Yd Field Goal
Q2 0:11BOIS +6%
Tyler Rausa 26 yd FG GOOD
Q3 7:45BAY +5%
Zach Smith run for 1 yd to the Bayl 29

FAQ

What was the final score of Boise State vs. Baylor?

Boise State 12, Baylor 31.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

No — the model picked BOIS, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.

BOIS

BAY

38%

Success rate

50%

-0.03

EPA / pass

0.53

0.07

EPA / rush

-0.01

34%

Early-down success

50%

36%

Pass success

55%

41%

Rush success

45%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

15%

Stuffed rush rate

12%

62%

Pass rate

51%

7.8

Avg 3rd-down distance

6.2

BOIS

7.8 yards to go on 3rd down

89 scrimmage snaps

BAY

6.2 yards to go on 3rd down

86 scrimmage snaps

BOIS		BAY
388	Total yards	515
305	Passing yards	375
83	Rushing yards	140
25	First downs	29
8-19	3rd down	8-15
3-5	4th down	0-2
32/51	Comp/Att	29/40
6.0	Yards per pass	9.4
2.2	Yards per rush	3.3
3	Turnovers	1
3-15	Penalties	11-125
32:55	Possession	27:05

Model prediction

how the number is built

Power rating (Elo)

BAY 1531

BOIS 1740

Projected spread

BAY +8.4

neutral site

Model pick

BOIS

70% to win

Market spread

BAY +8

sportsbook line

Model vs market

Agrees

aligned w/ market

Win prob: model / mkt

30%

BAY (no market)

Our model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (BAY Elo 1531, BOIS Elo 1740 for reference), on a neutral field. That projects BAY +8.4 (30% to win), essentially in line with the market.

Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).

Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation

Season form — 2016

nationally ranked

BOIS2016 season · national rank shownBAY

472.821st

Total yards / game

522.76th

6.89th

Yards / play

6.137th

298.315th

Passing yards / game

280.924th

174.562nd

Rushing yards / game

241.814th

47.6%12th

3rd down %

42.3%48th

389.852nd

Yards allowed / game

430.882nd

38.9%59th

3rd down % allowed

41.5%84th

-9116th

Turnover margin

-596th

4.37th

Penalties / game

9.9128th

The matchup, in context

series history + adjusted profiles

Baylor were +10 — a 27% shot

#36 of 113 in 2016 by biggest miss · #64 of 124 in 2016 by longest odds.

The 2016 upset archive →

Opponent-adjusted profile2016

BOIS		BAY
+13.5 (#20)	CORE overall	+8.9 (#33)
+10 / -4	offense / defense	+4 / -5
2.80	points / drive	2.26
1.74	allowed / drive	2.21
24%	three-and-outs	22%
+3	pass over expected	-2

Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.

CORE ratings →Drive efficiency →Play-calling →

Pro

Key matchups

The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.

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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →

BOISTeam statsBAY

Scoring plays

How the model called it

Win probability

How the line closed

Leaders

Tempo

This exact spot, historically

Fourth downs

What decided it

FAQ

What was the final score of Boise State vs. Baylor?

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Situational splits

Team stats

Fourth downs

Drive chart

Scoring plays

Model prediction

Season form — 2016

The matchup, in context

Key matchups

Boise State vs. Baylor: Final Score & Recap

BOISTeam statsBAY

How the model called it

What was the final score of Boise State vs. Baylor?

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Key matchups