Georgia State vs. Texas State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
GASTTeam statsTXST
- Q4 0:03TXSTRobert Lowe 2 Yd pass from Tyler Jones (Lumi Kaba Kick)41–19
- Q4 10:45GASTWil Lutz 44 Yd Field Goal 41–12
- Q3 5:01GASTPenny Hart 17 Yd pass from Nick Arbuckle (Wil Lutz Kick)38–12
- Q2 0:12GASTWil Lutz 42 Yd Field Goal 31–12
- Q2 3:09GASTDonovan Harden 4 Yd pass from Nick Arbuckle (Wil Lutz Kick)28–12
- Q2 10:41GASTDonovan Harden 8 Yd pass from Nick Arbuckle (Wil Lutz Kick)21–12
- Q2 12:59TXSTRobert Lowe 4 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)14–12
- Q1 1:14GASTTaz Bateman 5 Yd Run (Wil Lutz Kick)14–6
- Q1 4:23TXSTLumi Kaba 50 Yd Field Goal 7–6
- Q1 11:09GASTRobert Davis 34 Yd pass from Nick Arbuckle (Wil Lutz Kick)7–3
- Q1 12:39TXSTLumi Kaba 48 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
- PassNick Arbuckle 23/34, 471 YDS, 4 TD, 2 INT
- RushTaz Bateman 8 CAR, 51 YDS, 1 TD
- RecRobert Davis 5 REC, 177 YDS, 1 TD
- PassTyler Jones 29/51, 267 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- RushRobert Lowe 17 CAR, 88 YDS, 1 TD
- RecBrandon Smith 6 REC, 69 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsGAST up 26 entering the 4th quarter. Across 730 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 1:14GAST +21%
Taz Bateman run for 5 yds for a TD, (Wil Lutz KICK)
- Q2 10:41GAST +20%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Donovan Harden for 8 yds for a TD, (Wil Lutz KICK)
- Q1 11:09GAST +18%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Robert Davis for 34 yds for a TD, (Wil Lutz KICK)
- Q2 12:59TXST +16%
Robert Lowe run for 4 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
- Q2 3:09GAST +15%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Donovan Harden for 4 yds for a TD, (Wil Lutz KICK)
- Q1 4:23TXST +8%
Lumi Kaba 50 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Georgia State vs. Texas State?
Georgia State 41, Texas State 19.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked TXST, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| GAST | TXST | |
|---|---|---|
| 643 | Total yards | 453 |
| 471 | Passing yards | 267 |
| 172 | Rushing yards | 186 |
| 27 | First downs | 28 |
| 5-11 | 3rd down | 4-15 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 1-3 |
| 23/35 | Comp/Att | 29/52 |
| 13.5 | Yards per pass | 5.1 |
| 4.6 | Yards per rush | 5.8 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 5-35 | Penalties | 4-29 |
| 31:21 | Possession | 28:39 |
Costliest call
Q3 4:09 GAST punt on 4th & 2 at TXST 45. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.19 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:03TXSTRobert Lowe 2 Yd pass from Tyler Jones (Lumi Kaba Kick)41–19
- Q4 10:45GASTWil Lutz 44 Yd Field Goal 41–12
- Q3 5:01GASTPenny Hart 17 Yd pass from Nick Arbuckle (Wil Lutz Kick)38–12
- Q2 0:12GASTWil Lutz 42 Yd Field Goal 31–12
- Q2 3:09GASTDonovan Harden 4 Yd pass from Nick Arbuckle (Wil Lutz Kick)28–12
- Q2 10:41GASTDonovan Harden 8 Yd pass from Nick Arbuckle (Wil Lutz Kick)21–12
- Q2 12:59TXSTRobert Lowe 4 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)14–12
- Q1 1:14GASTTaz Bateman 5 Yd Run (Wil Lutz Kick)14–6
- Q1 4:23TXSTLumi Kaba 50 Yd Field Goal 7–6
- Q1 11:09GASTRobert Davis 34 Yd pass from Nick Arbuckle (Wil Lutz Kick)7–3
- Q1 12:39TXSTLumi Kaba 48 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (TXST Elo 1119, GAST Elo 1129 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects TXST -2 (57% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2015
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#26 of 92 in 2015 by biggest miss · #70 of 108 in 2015 by longest odds.
The 2015 upset archive →Georgia State leads 5–4 · Georgia State has won 2 straight · 44% have been one-possession games
| GAST | TXST | |
|---|---|---|
| -7.4 (#88) | CORE overall | -28.5 (#127) |
| -6 / +1 | offense / defense | -11 / +18 |
| 1.85 | points / drive | 1.61 |
| 1.91 | allowed / drive | 3.29 |
| 28% | three-and-outs | 33% |
| +10 | pass over expected | -3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →