#28Robert Lowe

RB·Texas State·20142.8 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Robert Lowe is a Featured Back for Texas State. Robert's 2014 season ranks in the 38th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 204 plays — a developing rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Robert Lowe's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2014 Production

Rushing

1091 Rush yards12 Rush TD185 Carries5.9 Yards/carry

Receiving

24 Receptions207 Rec yards1 Rec TD8.6 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2014 · vs RB peers

Efficiency38
Volume72
Explosiveness58
Consistency72
Receiving58

Player type

Featured Back

The centerpiece of the run game — high carry volume, used in early downs and goal-line, true workhorse role.

Primary ball carrierHigh volumeGoal-line threat

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)38th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency72th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸4 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Peak game: 0.76 EPA/play in Wk 13 vs Arkansas State (SP+ -0).

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9
Dalvin Cook	Florida State	2016	292	0.340	4.3	99.3
Travis Etienne	Clemson	2019	213	0.470	4.7	100.1
James Flanders	Tulsa	2016	266	0.390	4.9	103.7
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2017	240	0.410	5.2	98.4

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	vsArkansas-Pine Bluff	W65-0	—	14	150	10.7	1	3	23	0	0.50
3	vsNavy	L21-35	3.4	16	92	5.8	1	3	39	0	0.59
4	@Illinois	L35-42	0.4	26	117	4.5	0	4	55	0	0.16
6	vsIdaho	W35-30	-17.4	12	43	3.6	0	—	—	—	-0.02
8	vsLouisiana	L10-34	2.2	8	36	4.5	0	—	—	—	0.04
9	@UL Monroe	W22-18	-10.0	17	91	5.4	2	1	10	0	0.15
10	@New Mexico State	W37-29	-23.3	16	65	4.1	2	1	8	0	0.40
11	vsGeorgia Southern	L25-28	-2.4	11	39	3.5	1	5	19	0	-0.04
12	@South Alabama	L20-24	-4.3	16	76	4.8	1	3	26	0	0.07
13	vsArkansas State	W45-27	-0.3	29	236	8.1	4	1	5	0	0.76
14	@Georgia State	W54-31	-22.8	20	146	7.3	0	3	22	1	0.41

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

25.2%

Passing plays

8.1%

Rushing plays

39.4%

Standard downs

27.4%

Passing downs

20.2%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.24
Passing downs: 0.50
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.44 / 0.28

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2014 · 11 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.