M. M. Roberts StadiumConference gameClosing line: USM -3 · TXST covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TXST | 10 | 17 | 0 | 14 | 41 |
| USM | 0 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 14 |
Team stats
TXSTthis game · better side highlightedUSM
449
Total yards
391192
Passing yards
267257
Rushing yards
12424
First downs
205-11 · 45%
Third down
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
USM 1362
TXST 1483
Projected spread
USM +2.4
incl. home edge
Model pick
TXST
57% to win
Market spread
USM -3
sportsbook line
Model edge
TXST
5.4 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
43%
USM · market 62%
Our model blends Elo ratings (USM Elo 1362, TXST Elo 1483) plus home-field advantage. That projects USM +2.4 (43% to win) — 5.4 points of value on TXST versus the market line of -3.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
USM (top)TXST (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: USM 0%
Key matchups · Pro
- TXST pass offense (0.42 PPA) vs. USM pass defense (0.13 allowed) — edge TXST.
- TXST rush offense (0.28 PPA) vs. USM rush defense (0.14 allowed) — edge TXST.
- USM pass offense (0.28 PPA) vs. TXST pass defense (0.30 allowed) — edge TXST.
Drive-by-drive
TXST 6/11 scoring drives← own end zone →USM 3/11 scoring drives
TXSTFG13 pl, 69 yds· own 25Q1
USMFUM9 pl, 40 yds· own 35Q1
TXSTTD12 pl, 86 yds· own 14Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
TXST up 20 entering the 4th quarter. Across 818 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
98%
TXST went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Texas State vs. Southern Miss?
Texas State 41, Southern Miss 14.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (TXST) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had TXST pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.