Florida International
3-5·Conference USA· Elo 1241
56–30
Final
Middle Tennessee
1-7·Conference USA· Elo 1199
Johnny "Red" Floyd StadiumConference gameClosing line: MTSU -1.5 · FIU covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FIU | 0 | 21 | 13 | 22 | 56 |
| MTSU | 7 | 10 | 7 | 6 | 30 |
Team stats
FIUthis game · better side highlightedMTSU
401
Total yards
364257
Passing yards
331144
Rushing yards
3323
First downs
18Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
MTSU 1199
FIU 1241
Projected spread
MTSU -0.7
incl. home edge
Model pick
MTSU
52% to win
Market spread
MTSU -1.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
52%
MTSU · market 50%
Our model blends Elo ratings (MTSU Elo 1199, FIU Elo 1241) plus home-field advantage. That projects MTSU -0.7 (52% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
MTSU (top)FIU (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: MTSU 0%
Key matchups · Pro
- FIU pass offense (0.21 PPA) vs. MTSU pass defense (0.41 allowed) — edge MTSU.
- FIU rush offense (0.15 PPA) vs. MTSU rush defense (0.04 allowed) — edge FIU.
- MTSU pass offense (0.21 PPA) vs. FIU pass defense (0.26 allowed) — edge FIU.
Drive-by-drive
FIU 9/18 scoring drives← own end zone →MTSU 5/17 scoring drives
MTSUPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 18Q1
FIUPUNT6 pl, 9 yds· own 37Q1
MTSUTD7 pl, 90 yds· own 10Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
FIU up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
88%
FIU went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Florida International vs. Middle Tennessee?
Florida International 56, Middle Tennessee 30.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked MTSU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I had MTSU pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.