Florida International vs. Middle Tennessee: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
FIUTeam statsMTSU
- Q4 0:43MTSUCam'ron Lacy 60 Yd pass from Roman Gagliano (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)56–30
- Q4 9:15FIUAnthony Carrie 29 Yd Run (Noah Grant Kick)56–24
- Q4 11:16FIUKejon Owens 32 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)49–24
- Q4 13:35FIUAlex Perry 18 Yd pass from Joe Pesansky (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)43–24
- Q4 14:44FIUNoah Grant 33 Yd Field Goal 37–24
- Q3 2:16FIUDallas Payne 30 Yd pass from Joe Pesansky (Noah Grant Kick)34–24
- Q3 3:12MTSUMyles Butler 5 Yd pass from Nicholas Vattiato (Jacob Hathaway Kick)27–24
- Q3 10:34FIUAlex Perry 20 Yd pass from Joe Pesansky (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)27–17
- Q2 0:42MTSUJacob Hathaway 48 Yd Field Goal 21–17
- Q2 1:39MTSUAJ Jones 5 Yd pass from Nicholas Vattiato (Jacob Hathaway Kick)21–14
- Q2 4:26FIUKejon Owens 1 Yd Run (Noah Grant Kick)21–7
- Q2 7:17FIUJoJo Stone 49 Yd pass from Joe Pesansky (Noah Grant Kick)14–7
- Q2 13:40FIUJoe Pesansky 6 Yd Run (Noah Grant Kick)7–7
- Q1 7:32MTSUJekail Middlebrook 48 Yd pass from Nicholas Vattiato (Jacob Hathaway Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassJoe Pesansky 17/28, 257 YDS, 4 TD, 2 INT
- RushKejon Owens 15 CAR, 68 YDS, 2 TD
- RecAlex Perry 5 REC, 71 YDS, 2 TD
- PassNicholas Vattiato 26/37, 242 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- RushJekail Middlebrook 8 CAR, 30 YDS
- RecCam'ron Lacy 5 REC, 108 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsFIU up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 0:41FIU +64%
Kneel down by #17 Z.Waters at MTSU49 for loss of 2 yards
- Q4 0:43MTSU +59%
No Huddle-Shotgun #16 R.Gagliano pass complete deep middle to #13 C.Lacy caught at FIU25, for 60 yards to the FIU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN #16 R.Gagliano pass attempt failed
- Q4 0:53FIU +50%
#6 T.Wilhoit punt 49 yards to the MTSU39 #22 J.Gaston return 1 yard to the MTSU40 (#4 V.Evans III)
- Q2 9:12MTSU +35%
#32 A.Logan punt 34 yards to the FIU10
- Q4 1:45MTSU +35%
#32 A.Logan punt 66 yards to the FIU07
- Q4 3:27FIU +27%
#6 T.Wilhoit punt 53 yards to the MTSU30 #22 J.Gaston return for loss of 1 yard to the MTSU29 (#47 J.Wood)
FAQ
What was the final score of Florida International vs. Middle Tennessee?
Florida International 56, Middle Tennessee 30.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked MTSU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| FIU | MTSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 401 | Total yards | 364 |
| 257 | Passing yards | 331 |
| 144 | Rushing yards | 33 |
| 22 | First downs | 18 |
| 5-12 | 3rd down | 5-17 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 2-5 |
| 17/28 | Comp/Att | 33/54 |
| 9.2 | Yards per pass | 6.1 |
| 3.8 | Yards per rush | 1.4 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 6-61 | Penalties | 8-83 |
| 28:27 | Possession | 31:33 |
Costliest call
Q3 0:56 MTSU go for it on 4th & 6 at MTSU 29. The model preferred punt, a gap of 0.49 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:43MTSUCam'ron Lacy 60 Yd pass from Roman Gagliano (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)56–30
- Q4 9:15FIUAnthony Carrie 29 Yd Run (Noah Grant Kick)56–24
- Q4 11:16FIUKejon Owens 32 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)49–24
- Q4 13:35FIUAlex Perry 18 Yd pass from Joe Pesansky (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)43–24
- Q4 14:44FIUNoah Grant 33 Yd Field Goal 37–24
- Q3 2:16FIUDallas Payne 30 Yd pass from Joe Pesansky (Noah Grant Kick)34–24
- Q3 3:12MTSUMyles Butler 5 Yd pass from Nicholas Vattiato (Jacob Hathaway Kick)27–24
- Q3 10:34FIUAlex Perry 20 Yd pass from Joe Pesansky (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)27–17
- Q2 0:42MTSUJacob Hathaway 48 Yd Field Goal 21–17
- Q2 1:39MTSUAJ Jones 5 Yd pass from Nicholas Vattiato (Jacob Hathaway Kick)21–14
- Q2 4:26FIUKejon Owens 1 Yd Run (Noah Grant Kick)21–7
- Q2 7:17FIUJoJo Stone 49 Yd pass from Joe Pesansky (Noah Grant Kick)14–7
- Q2 13:40FIUJoe Pesansky 6 Yd Run (Noah Grant Kick)7–7
- Q1 7:32MTSUJekail Middlebrook 48 Yd pass from Nicholas Vattiato (Jacob Hathaway Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MTSU Elo 1199, FIU Elo 1241 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MTSU -0.7 (53% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#29 of 112 in 2025 by biggest miss · #108 of 129 in 2025 by longest odds.
The 2025 upset archive →Middle Tennessee leads 14–7 · Florida International has won 2 straight · 43% have been one-possession games
| FIU | MTSU | |
|---|---|---|
| -15.2 (#109) | CORE overall | -15.9 (#113) |
| -11 / +4 | offense / defense | -5 / +11 |
| 2.11 | points / drive | 1.93 |
| 2.43 | allowed / drive | 2.66 |
| 28% | three-and-outs | 27% |
| -0 | pass over expected | +10 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →