Sun, Sep 21, 2:30 AM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| SDSU | 0 | 13 | 14 | 7 | 34 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (SDSU Elo 1283, CAL Elo 1586) plus home-field advantage. That projects SDSU +9.7 (24% to win) — 4.3 points of value on SDSU versus the market line of +14.
SDSU up 27 entering the 4th quarter. Across 532 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
California 0, San Diego State 34.
No — the model picked CAL, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had CAL pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass intercepted Chris Johnson return for 97 yds for a TD (Gabriel Plascencia KICK)
Dwayne McDougle 35 Yd Fumble Return (Gabriel Plascencia Kick)
Jayden Denegal pass complete to Jordan Napier for 80 yds to the CAL 10 for a 1ST down
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