Snapdragon Stadium
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| SDSU | 0 | 13 | 14 | 7 | 34 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
SDSU 1283
CAL 1586
Projected spread
SDSU +9.7
incl. home edge
Model pick
CAL
76% to win
Market spread
SDSU +14
sportsbook line
Model edge
SDSU
4.3 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
24%
SDSU · market 19%
Our model blends Elo ratings (SDSU Elo 1283, CAL Elo 1586) plus home-field advantage. That projects SDSU +9.7 (24% to win) — 4.3 points of value on SDSU versus the market line of +14.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
SDSU (top)CAL (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: SDSU 100%
Key matchups · Pro
- CAL pass offense (0.23 PPA) vs. SDSU pass defense (-0.04 allowed) — edge CAL.
- CAL rush offense (-0.04 PPA) vs. SDSU rush defense (0.06 allowed) — edge SDSU.
- SDSU pass offense (0.09 PPA) vs. CAL pass defense (0.14 allowed) — edge CAL.
Drive-by-drive
CAL 2/12 scoring drives← own end zone →SDSU 4/11 scoring drives
SDSUPUNT4 pl, 15 yds· own 16Q1
CALDOWNS19 pl, 75 yds· own 23Q1
SDSUPUNT4 pl, 6 yds· own 2Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
SDSU up 27 entering the 4th quarter. Across 532 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
99%
SDSU went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of California vs. San Diego State?
California 0, San Diego State 34.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked CAL, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I had CAL pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.