#2Jordan Napier

WR·San Diego State·2025

Jordan Napier is a Versatile WR for San Diego State. Jordan's 2025 season ranks in the 100th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 71 plays — a elite rate for the WR.

What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.47
Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.09
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
Total EPA (value)0.45
Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Jordan Napier's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Rushing

40 Rush yards1 Rush TD11 Carries3.6 Yards/carry

Receiving

48 Receptions632 Rec yards2 Rec TD13.2 Yards/rec

Returns

12 Kick returns265 KR yards0 KR TD22 Punt returns193 PR yards1 PR TD

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs WR peers

Efficiency100
Volume34
Explosiveness41
Consistency28
Pass-Down69

Player type

Versatile WR

Balanced profile without a single dominant trait — contributes across multiple dimensions.

Balanced usageMulti-role

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)100th %ile · elite

Game-to-game consistency28th %ile · below avg

Key findings

▸Top-10% efficiency among WRs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
▸High game-to-game variance — boom-or-bust profile.
▸5 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.15 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 1.73 EPA/play in Wk 6 vs Colorado State (SP+ -16).

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗

Star

Top-10 nationally. Multiple mid-to-large collective deals expected.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · WR · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Noah Short	Army	2024	69	0.300	0.5	20.7
Chris Tyree	Notre Dame	2020	76	0.310	0.6	23.6
Malik Dunner	Ball State	2017	76	0.290	0.4	22.0
Xavier White	Texas Tech	2020	62	0.300	0.5	18.6
Ainias Smith	Texas A&M	2020	55	0.310	0.5	17.0

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Rec	Rec Yds	Avg	Rec TD	Long	EPA/play
1	vsStony Brook	W42-0	—	3	18	6.0	0	8	-0.58
2	@Washington State	L13-36	3.8	7	69	9.9	0	23	-0.11
4	vsCalifornia	W34-0	-3.2	9	154	17.1	1	80	0.97
5	@Northern Illinois	W6-3	-16.7	6	52	8.7	0	19	0.23
6	vsColorado State	W45-24	-15.6	7	153	21.9	1	61	1.73
7	@Nevada	W44-10	-13.4	5	110	22.0	0	41	1.50
9	@Fresno State	W23-0	1.8	4	14	3.5	0	7	-0.62
10	vsWyoming	W24-7	-11.3	4	43	10.8	0	22	0.54
11	@Hawai'i	L6-38	1.7	2	21	10.5	0	13	1.07
12	vsBoise State	W17-7	3.1	1	-2	-2.0	0	0	-1.01

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

11.9%

Passing plays

28.9%

Rushing plays

2.7%

Standard downs

11.9%

Passing downs

12.0%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.30
Passing downs: 0.41
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.43 / -0.26

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).