#4Malik Dunner

WR·Ball State·2018 20170.4 pts line value1st Round

Malik Dunner is a 2-year Versatile WR for Ball State. Malik's 2017 season ranks in the 25th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 91 plays — a developing rate for the WR.

What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.47
Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.09
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
Total EPA (value)0.45
Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Malik Dunner's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2017 Production

Rushing

440 Rush yards8 Rush TD74 Carries5.9 Yards/carry

Receiving

18 Receptions139 Rec yards0 Rec TD7.7 Yards/rec

Returns

30 Kick returns709 KR yards1 KR TD

Performance Analysis · 2017 · vs WR peers

Efficiency25
Volume33
Explosiveness5
Consistency0
Pass-Down0

Player type

Versatile WR

Balanced profile without a single dominant trait — contributes across multiple dimensions.

Balanced usageMulti-role

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)25th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency0th %ile · below avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs WR peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High game-to-game variance — boom-or-bust profile.
▸3 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.13 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.68 EPA/play in Wk 3 vs Tennessee Tech.

Historical Comparables · WR · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Chris Tyree	Notre Dame	2020	76	0.310	0.6	23.6
Noah Short	Army	2024	69	0.300	0.5	20.7
Xavier White	Texas Tech	2020	62	0.300	0.5	18.6
Dawan Scott	Miami (OH)	2014	66	0.280	0.8	18.5
Jafar Armstrong	Notre Dame	2018	79	0.320	1.0	25.3

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Rec	Rec Yds	Avg	Rec TD	Long	EPA/play
1	@Illinois	L21-24	-7.4	1	8	8.0	0	8	-0.14
2	vsUAB	W51-31	—	2	7	3.5	0	6	0.19
3	vsTennessee Tech	W28-13	—	2	28	14.0	0	16	0.68
4	@Western Kentucky	L21-33	-4.9	2	54	27.0	0	41	0.41
5	@Western Michigan	L3-55	-2.4	2	-3	-1.5	0	0	-0.61
6	@Akron	L3-31	-17.6	3	28	9.3	0	19	0.21
8	vsCentral Michigan	L9-56	-8.6	1	5	5.0	0	5	-0.50
9	vsToledo	L17-58	6.6	1	8	8.0	0	8	0.40
10	@Eastern Michigan	L14-56	-5.3	1	-5	-5.0	0	0	-0.39
11	@Northern Illinois	L17-63	-1.4	—	—	—	—	—	0.16
12	vsBuffalo	L24-40	-11.2	2	2	1.0	0	4	0.39
13	vsMiami (OH)	L7-28	-2.2	1	7	7.0	0	7	-0.08

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

11.5%

Passing plays

7.2%

Rushing plays

15.8%

Standard downs

11.6%

Passing downs

11.4%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.35
Passing downs: -0.07
Pass / Rush EPA: -0.08 / 0.32

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2017 — 2018 · 24 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2017	Ball State	0.4	0.290	—	22.0
2018	Ball State	0.0	0.150	-0.14	9.4

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.