Alabama vs. Vanderbilt: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ALATeam statsVAN
- Q4 2:46ALARyan Williams 2 Yd Run (Graham Nicholson Kick)35–40
- Q4 5:07VANKamrean Johnson 6 Yd pass from Diego Pavia (Brock Taylor Kick)28–40
- Q4 10:35VANBrock Taylor 33 Yd Field Goal 28–33
- Q3 1:01ALARyan Williams 58 Yd pass from Jalen Milroe (Graham Nicholson Kick)28–30
- Q3 2:53VANJunior Sherrill 36 Yd pass from Diego Pavia (Brock Taylor Kick)21–30
- Q3 12:01ALAJalen Milroe 14 Yd Run (Graham Nicholson Kick)21–23
- Q2 1:25ALAJam Miller 3 Yd Run (Graham Nicholson Kick)14–23
- Q2 4:10VANBrock Taylor 51 Yd Field Goal 7–23
- Q2 9:32VANSedrick Alexander 1 Yd Run (Brock Taylor Kick)7–20
- Q1 4:22ALAJam Miller 8 Yd Run (Graham Nicholson Kick)7–13
- Q1 8:03VANRandon Fontenette 29 Yd Interception Return (Brock Taylor PAT failed)0–13
- Q1 8:46VANSedrick Alexander 7 Yd Run (Brock Taylor Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassJalen Milroe 18/24, 310 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushJam Miller 5 CAR, 45 YDS, 2 TD
- RecRyan Coleman-Williams 3 REC, 82 YDS, 1 TD
- PassDiego Pavia 16/20, 252 YDS, 2 TD
- RushSedrick Alexander 21 CAR, 64 YDS, 2 TD
- RecEli Stowers 6 REC, 113 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsVAN up 2 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,936 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 2:53VAN +33%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Junior Sherrill for 36 yds for a TD (Brock Taylor KICK)
- Q3 1:01ALA +31%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Ryan Williams for 58 yds for a TD (Graham Nicholson KICK)
- Q2 9:32VAN +23%
Sedrick Alexander run for 1 yd for a TD (Brock Taylor KICK)
- Q2 1:25ALA +23%
Jam Miller run for 3 yds for a TD (Graham Nicholson KICK)
- Q4 5:07VAN +22%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Kamrean Johnson for 6 yds for a TD (Brock Taylor KICK)
- Q4 2:46ALA +22%
Ryan Williams run for 2 yds for a TD (Graham Nicholson KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Alabama vs. Vanderbilt?
Alabama 35, Vanderbilt 40.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked ALA, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| ALA | VAN | |
|---|---|---|
| 394 | Total yards | 418 |
| 310 | Passing yards | 252 |
| 84 | Rushing yards | 166 |
| 17 | First downs | 26 |
| 3-6 | 3rd down | 12-18 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 18/24 | Comp/Att | 16/21 |
| 12.9 | Yards per pass | 12.0 |
| 4.0 | Yards per rush | 3.1 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 6-57 | Penalties | 3-20 |
| 17:52 | Possession | 42:08 |
Costliest call
Q2 0:03 VAN punt on 4th & 13 at ALA 42. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.10 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:46ALARyan Williams 2 Yd Run (Graham Nicholson Kick)35–40
- Q4 5:07VANKamrean Johnson 6 Yd pass from Diego Pavia (Brock Taylor Kick)28–40
- Q4 10:35VANBrock Taylor 33 Yd Field Goal 28–33
- Q3 1:01ALARyan Williams 58 Yd pass from Jalen Milroe (Graham Nicholson Kick)28–30
- Q3 2:53VANJunior Sherrill 36 Yd pass from Diego Pavia (Brock Taylor Kick)21–30
- Q3 12:01ALAJalen Milroe 14 Yd Run (Graham Nicholson Kick)21–23
- Q2 1:25ALAJam Miller 3 Yd Run (Graham Nicholson Kick)14–23
- Q2 4:10VANBrock Taylor 51 Yd Field Goal 7–23
- Q2 9:32VANSedrick Alexander 1 Yd Run (Brock Taylor Kick)7–20
- Q1 4:22ALAJam Miller 8 Yd Run (Graham Nicholson Kick)7–13
- Q1 8:03VANRandon Fontenette 29 Yd Interception Return (Brock Taylor PAT failed)0–13
- Q1 8:46VANSedrick Alexander 7 Yd Run (Brock Taylor Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (VAN Elo 1317, ALA Elo 2056 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects VAN +27.2 (5% to win) — 4.2 points clear of ALA's market line of +23. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2024
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#33 of 120 in 2024 by biggest miss · #4 of 129 in 2024 by longest odds · #1 of 60 in 2024 by biggest poll gap.
The 2024 upset archive →Alabama leads 64–19–4 · 34% have been one-possession games
| ALA | VAN | |
|---|---|---|
| +18.3 (#12) | CORE overall | -3.8 (#79) |
| +7 / -11 | offense / defense | +2 / +6 |
| 2.62 | points / drive | 2.46 |
| 1.46 | allowed / drive | 2.53 |
| 29% | three-and-outs | 25% |
| +0 | pass over expected | -7 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →