Maine vs. Florida International: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Maine

0012

Florida International0-1

▸0014

Final

FIU Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
MAIN	3	3	6	0	12
FIU	7	7	0	0	14

MAINTeam statsFIU

378Total yards305

213Pass292

165Rush13

27First downs12

5-153rd down3-12

1Turnovers3

37:35Possession22:25

Scoring plays

• Q3 8:59MAINTristen Kenan 5 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)12–14
• Q2 1:37FIUKris Mitchell 62 Yd pass from Keyone Jenkins (Chase Gabriel Kick)6–14
• Q2 2:04MAINCody Williams 28 Yd Field Goal6–7
• Q1 3:48MAINCody Williams 48 Yd Field Goal3–7
• Q1 8:01FIUKris Mitchell 19 Yd pass from Keyone Jenkins (Chase Gabriel Kick)0–7

How the model called it

Market line

FIU −15

Against the number

MAIN covered

line FIU −15

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

FIU 100%50%MAIN 100%

Kickoff161 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

FIU (top)MAIN (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: FIU 100%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

FIU −15

Closing total

46.5

Model line

—

Actual result

MAIN 12 – 14 FIU

Leaders

Maine

• PassDerek Robertson 21/43, 213 YDS
• RushTristen Kenan 24 CAR, 108 YDS, 1 TD
• RecMontigo Moss 3 REC, 50 YDS

Florida International

• PassKeyone Jenkins 15/30, 292 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
• RushShomari Lawrence 7 CAR, 26 YDS
• RecKris Mitchell 9 REC, 201 YDS, 2 TD

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

23sper snap · in line with the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

154

Points / snap

0.17

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

FIU up 2 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,935 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

57%

FIU went on to win

A genuinely vulnerable lead — comebacks are common

Most comparable games

WLehigh vs Merrimack27-21WOklahoma State vs Arizona State27-15WTennessee State vs Gardner-Webb27-25LNorthern Illinois vs Tulsa14-22WElon vs Monmouth28-26

Fourth downs

19 calls

MAIN gave up 1.8 points to the model on fourth down.MAIN 6/9 · FIU 6/9 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Maine vs. Florida International?

Maine 12, Florida International 14.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (FIU) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

MAIN

FIU

36%

Success rate

37%

-0.06

EPA / pass

0.13

-0.16

EPA / rush

-0.28

36%

Early-down success

40%

35%

Pass success

36%

38%

Rush success

38%

10%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

12%

5%

Stuffed rush rate

29%

57%

Pass rate

60%

7.1

Avg 3rd-down distance

8.7

MAIN

7.1 yards to go on 3rd down

94 scrimmage snaps

FIU

8.7 yards to go on 3rd down

60 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

MAIN		FIU
378	Total yards	305
213	Passing yards	292
165	Rushing yards	13
27	First downs	12
5-15	3rd down	3-12
1-3	4th down	0-3
21/44	Comp/Att	15/30
4.8	Yards per pass	9.7
4.0	Yards per rush	0.5
1	Turnovers	3
5-50	Penalties	8-79
37:35	Possession	22:25

Fourth downs

19 calls

MAIN

6/9 with the model

−1.8 pts · −0.0% win prob

FIU

6/9 with the model

−0.3 pts · −0.0% win prob

Costliest call

Q4 11:09 MAIN punt on 4th & 16 at FIU 34. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 1.00 points.

Every call, priced (19)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

MAIN 3/12 scoring drives← own end zone →FIU 1/11 scoring drives

FIUPUNT5 pl, 15 yds· own 20Q1

MAINFUM6 pl, 35 yds· own 40Q1

FIUTD8 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1

MAINPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 25Q1

FIUDOWNS4 pl, -3 yds· opp 40Q1

MAINFG5 pl, 28 yds· own 43Q1

FIUINT7 pl, 48 yds· own 25Q1

MAINPUNT8 pl, 28 yds· own 20Q1

FIUPUNT3 pl, -5 yds· own 20Q2

MAINMISS7 pl, 30 yds· own 38Q2

FIUPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 32Q2

MAINPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 8Q2

MAINFG6 pl, 27 yds· opp 37Q2

FIUTD3 pl, 69 yds· own 31Q2

MAINEND7 pl, 35 yds· own 25Q2

MAINTD12 pl, 81 yds· own 19Q3

FIUPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 25Q3

MAINDOWNS7 pl, 47 yds· own 48Q3

FIUPUNT6 pl, 49 yds· own 5Q3

MAINPUNT10 pl, 47 yds· own 19Q3

FIUFUM9 pl, 79 yds· own 10Q4

MAINDOWNS14 pl, 47 yds· own 11Q4

FIUUncateg3 pl, -29 yds· own 42Q4

Scoring plays

• Q3 8:59MAINTristen Kenan 5 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)12–14
• Q2 1:37FIUKris Mitchell 62 Yd pass from Keyone Jenkins (Chase Gabriel Kick)6–14
• Q2 2:04MAINCody Williams 28 Yd Field Goal6–7
• Q1 3:48MAINCody Williams 48 Yd Field Goal3–7
• Q1 8:01FIUKris Mitchell 19 Yd pass from Keyone Jenkins (Chase Gabriel Kick)0–7

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →