Lehigh vs. Merrimack: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Lehigh0-1

▸0014

Merrimack

0012

Final

Duane Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
LEHI	0	14	0	0	14
MERR	3	3	6	0	12

LEHITeam statsMERR

329Total yards276

260Pass90

69Rush186

17First downs15

2-143rd down1-14

2Turnovers1

27:37Possession32:23

Scoring plays

• Q3 5:04MERRGavin McCusker 2 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)14–12
• Q2 0:00MERRLliam Davis 46 Yd Field Goal 14–6
• Q2 0:02LEHIConnor Kennedy 8 Yd pass from Brayten Silbor (Nick Garrido Kick)14–3
• Q2 0:56LEHIConnor Kennedy 6 Yd pass from Brayten Silbor (Nick Garrido Kick)7–3
• Q1 7:17MERRLliam Davis 32 Yd Field Goal 0–3

What the numbers say

• LEHI played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and MERR did not face the same ones. 3rd & 7.0 vs 3rd & 3.5

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

MERR 100%50%LEHI 100%

Kickoff70 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

MERR (top)LEHI (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: MERR 0%

Leaders

Lehigh

• PassBrayten Silbor 20/40, 260 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
• RushGaige Garcia 14 CAR, 71 YDS
• RecGeoffrey Jamiel 4 REC, 72 YDS

Merrimack

• PassGavin McCusker 10/27, 90 YDS
• RushTyvon Edmonds Jr. 23 CAR, 140 YDS
• RecLJ Robinson 3 REC, 40 YDS

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

54sper snap · slower the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

50

Points / snap

0.52

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

LEHI up 2 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,934 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

57%

LEHI went on to win

A genuinely vulnerable lead — comebacks are common

Most comparable games

WFlorida International vs Maine14-12WOklahoma State vs Arizona State27-15WTennessee State vs Gardner-Webb27-25LNorthern Illinois vs Tulsa14-22WElon vs Monmouth28-26

Fourth downs

24 calls

LEHI gave up 1.8 points to the model on fourth down.LEHI 6/9 · MERR 8/12 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Lehigh vs. Merrimack?

Lehigh 14, Merrimack 12.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

No — the model picked MERR, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

LEHI

MERR

44%

Success rate

39%

-0.05

EPA / pass

-0.58

0.08

EPA / rush

0.44

44%

Early-down success

46%

43%

Pass success

14%

46%

Rush success

55%

16%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

17%

9%

Stuffed rush rate

9%

66%

Pass rate

39%

7.0

Avg 3rd-down distance

3.5

LEHI

7.0 yards to go on 3rd down

32 scrimmage snaps

MERR

3.5 yards to go on 3rd down

18 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

LEHI		MERR
329	Total yards	276
260	Passing yards	90
69	Rushing yards	186
17	First downs	15
2-14	3rd down	1-14
1-1	4th down	1-3
20/41	Comp/Att	10/27
6.3	Yards per pass	3.3
2.9	Yards per rush	4.3
2	Turnovers	1
7-55	Penalties	6-60
27:37	Possession	32:23

Fourth downs

24 calls

LEHI

6/9 with the model

−1.8 pts · −0.0% win prob

MERR

8/12 with the model

−1.5 pts · −0.0% win prob

Costliest call

Q2 13:51 LEHI punt on 4th & 1 at MERR 49. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.60 points.

Every call, priced (24)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

LEHI 1/13 scoring drives← own end zone →MERR 1/15 scoring drives

MERRPUNT7 pl, 23 yds· own 40Q1

LEHIPUNT4 pl, 0 yds· own 10Q1

MERRFG6 pl, 37 yds· own 48Q1

LEHIPUNT5 pl, 17 yds· own 18Q1

MERRPUNT3 pl, -3 yds· own 33Q1

LEHIPUNT5 pl, 20 yds· own 31Q1

MERRPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 10Q1

LEHIPUNT3 pl, 9 yds· own 42Q1

MERRPUNT10 pl, 52 yds· own 3Q2

LEHIINT6 pl, 53 yds· own 20Q2

MERRPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 21Q2

LEHIPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 26Q2

MERRPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 26Q2

LEHITD6 pl, 71 yds· own 29Q2

MERRPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 16Q2

MERRFG1 pl, 0 yds· opp 29Q2

LEHIPUNT9 pl, 26 yds· own 24Q3

MERRTD13 pl, 87 yds· own 13Q3

LEHIINT6 pl, 70 yds· own 25Q3

MERRPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 38Q3

LEHIPUNT6 pl, 25 yds· own 20Q3

MERRDOWNS8 pl, 45 yds· own 20Q4

LEHIPUNT3 pl, -4 yds· own 35Q4

MERRPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 33Q4

LEHIPUNT6 pl, 7 yds· own 23Q4

MERRDOWNS6 pl, 10 yds· own 39Q4

LEHIPUNT4 pl, -4 yds· opp 49Q4

MERRFUM2 pl, 0 yds· own 18Q4

Scoring plays

• Q3 5:04MERRGavin McCusker 2 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)14–12
• Q2 0:00MERRLliam Davis 46 Yd Field Goal 14–6
• Q2 0:02LEHIConnor Kennedy 8 Yd pass from Brayten Silbor (Nick Garrido Kick)14–3
• Q2 0:56LEHIConnor Kennedy 6 Yd pass from Brayten Silbor (Nick Garrido Kick)7–3
• Q1 7:17MERRLliam Davis 32 Yd Field Goal 0–3

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →