Monmouth vs. Elon: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
Monmouth0-1
Elon0-1
▸Final
Rhodes StadiumConference game
MONMTeam statsELON
460Total yards375
260Pass282
200Rush93
22First downs18
3-123rd down5-12
2Turnovers1
27:46Possession32:14
- Q4 1:29MONMJoshua Derry 12 Yd pass from Marquez McCray (Michael Calton Jr. Kick)26–28
- Q4 12:21ELONChandler Brayboy 41 Yd Run (Jack Berkowitz Kick)19–28
- Q3 1:25MONMSone Ntoh 2 Yd Run (Michael Calton Jr. Kick)19–21
- Q3 13:37MONMDymere Miller 68 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)12–21
- Q2 1:53ELONJohncarlos Miller II 65 Yd pass from Matthew Downing (Jack Berkowitz Kick)6–21
- Q2 11:27MONMDymere Miller 43 Yd pass from Marquez McCray (Michael Calton Jr. PAT failed)6–14
- Q1 7:29ELONJordan Bonner 41 Yd pass from Matthew Downing (Jack Berkowitz Kick)0–14
- Q1 14:06ELONChandler Brayboy 59 Yd pass from Matthew Downing (Jack Berkowitz Kick)0–7
How the model called it
Market line
MONM −3
Against the number
ELON covered
line MONM −3
What the numbers say
- ELON played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and MONM did not face the same ones. 3rd & 7.8 vs 3rd & 5.3
- ELON lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 12% explosive on a 29% success rate
Kickoff136 plays →Final
Tap or hover on the chart to see play details
ELON (top)MONM (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: ELON 100%
Closing line
MONM −3
Closing total
52.0
Model line
—
Actual result
MONM 26 – 28 ELON
Monmouth
- PassMarquez McCray 23/37, 246 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushJaden Shirden 19 CAR, 110 YDS
- RecDymere Miller 11 REC, 146 YDS, 1 TD
Elon
- PassMatthew Downing 14/20, 282 YDS, 3 TD
- RushJalen Hampton 22 CAR, 80 YDS
- RecChandler Brayboy 3 REC, 96 YDS, 1 TD
28.2sper snap · slower the national 24.5s
fastnational avgslow
Snaps run
127
Points / snap
0.43
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsELON up 2 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,935 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
57%
ELON went on to win
A genuinely vulnerable lead — comebacks are common
FAQ
What was the final score of Monmouth vs. Elon?
Monmouth 26, Elon 28.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (ELON) was correct.
MONM
ELON
49%
Success rate
29%
0.09
EPA / pass
0.57
0.44
EPA / rush
-0.03
53%
Early-down success
28%
43%
Pass success
40%
59%
Rush success
21%
12%
Explosive play rate (15+ yds)
12%
7%
Stuffed rush rate
15%
58%
Pass rate
43%
5.3
Avg 3rd-down distance
7.8
MONM
5.3 yards to go on 3rd down
69 scrimmage snaps
ELON
7.8 yards to go on 3rd down
58 scrimmage snaps
| MONM | ELON | |
|---|---|---|
| 460 | Total yards | 375 |
| 260 | Passing yards | 282 |
| 200 | Rushing yards | 93 |
| 22 | First downs | 18 |
| 3-12 | 3rd down | 5-12 |
| 3-6 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 24/39 | Comp/Att | 14/20 |
| 6.7 | Yards per pass | 14.1 |
| 6.7 | Yards per rush | 2.4 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 5-50 | Penalties | 2-21 |
| 27:46 | Possession | 32:14 |
MONM
6/8 with the model
−1.0 pts · −0.0% win prob
ELON
1/4 with the model
−0.6 pts · −0.0% win prob
Costliest call
Q2 3:35 MONM go for it on 4th & 6 at ELON 12. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.55 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finishMONM 4/12 scoring drives← own end zone →ELON 4/12 scoring drives
ELONTD2 pl, 60 yds· own 40Q1
MONMPUNT8 pl, 28 yds· own 21Q1
ELONTD6 pl, 80 yds· own 20Q1
MONMPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 27Q1
ELONPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 22Q1
MONMDOWNS10 pl, 66 yds· own 33Q1
ELONPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 1Q2
MONMTD1 pl, 43 yds· opp 43Q2
ELONFUM8 pl, 6 yds· own 25Q2
MONMDOWNS6 pl, 6 yds· opp 31Q2
ELONTD4 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q2
MONMINT8 pl, 38 yds· own 40Q2
ELONEND1 pl, -1 yds· own 7Q2
MONMTD3 pl, 86 yds· own 14Q3
ELONDOWNS5 pl, 33 yds· own 25Q3
MONMDOWNS8 pl, 28 yds· own 42Q3
ELONPUNT4 pl, 19 yds· own 30Q3
MONMTD10 pl, 80 yds· own 20Q3
ELONTD7 pl, 76 yds· own 24Q3
MONMPUNT3 pl, -1 yds· own 20Q4
ELONPUNT11 pl, 36 yds· own 30Q4
MONMTD8 pl, 80 yds· own 20Q4
ELONPUNT5 pl, 17 yds· own 47Q4
MONMFUM1 pl, -5 yds· own 10Q4
- Q4 1:29MONMJoshua Derry 12 Yd pass from Marquez McCray (Michael Calton Jr. Kick)26–28
- Q4 12:21ELONChandler Brayboy 41 Yd Run (Jack Berkowitz Kick)19–28
- Q3 1:25MONMSone Ntoh 2 Yd Run (Michael Calton Jr. Kick)19–21
- Q3 13:37MONMDymere Miller 68 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)12–21
- Q2 1:53ELONJohncarlos Miller II 65 Yd pass from Matthew Downing (Jack Berkowitz Kick)6–21
- Q2 11:27MONMDymere Miller 43 Yd pass from Marquez McCray (Michael Calton Jr. PAT failed)6–14
- Q1 7:29ELONJordan Bonner 41 Yd pass from Matthew Downing (Jack Berkowitz Kick)0–14
- Q1 14:06ELONChandler Brayboy 59 Yd pass from Matthew Downing (Jack Berkowitz Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOne or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →