#2Diego Pavia

QB·Vanderbilt·2025 2024 202313.6 pts line value1st Round

Diego Pavia is a 3-year Dual-Threat QB for Vanderbilt. Diego's 2025 season ranks in the 90th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 525 plays — a elite rate for the QB. Diego's production has improved each season, a positive development trajectory.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Diego Pavia's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Passing

267/378 Comp/Att3539 Pass yards29 Pass TD8 INT70.6% Comp %

Rushing

862 Rush yards10 Rush TD167 Carries5.2 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs QB peers

Efficiency90
Volume100
Dual-Threat100
Consistency88
Clutch100

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)90th %ile · elite

Game-to-game consistency88th %ile · above avg

Career trajectory:↑ Rising

Key findings

▸Top-10% efficiency among QBs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸Career trajectory is upward — WEPA value has improved season over season.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸9 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Peak game: 0.78 EPA/play in Wk 2 vs Virginia Tech (SP+ -10).

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗

Elite

Top-3 player at position nationally. Collective + national brand deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Ryan Higgins	Louisiana Tech	2016	571	0.586	13.7	334.6
Tanner Mordecai	SMU	2021	510	0.630	14.0	321.5
Baker Mayfield	Oklahoma	2015	577	0.561	14.1	323.7
J.T. Barrett	Ohio State	2017	576	0.593	14.1	341.6
Stetson Bennett	Georgia	2022	509	0.635	12.5	323.0

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsCharleston Southern	W45-3	—	20/25	275	3	0	85.6	44	0	0.73
2	@Virginia Tech	W44-20	-10.1	12/18	193	2	1	88.7	61	0	0.78
3	@South Carolina	W31-7	5.9	18/25	177	2	1	76.9	24	0	0.36
4	vsGeorgia State	W70-21	-24.5	18/24	245	1	0	93.3	86	1	0.54
5	vsUtah State	W55-35	-3.1	26/34	321	5	1	92.9	79	1	0.60
6	@Alabama	L14-30	14.8	21/35	198	1	1	53.9	58	0	0.06
8	vsLSU	W31-24	10.3	14/22	160	1	0	93.1	86	2	0.48
9	vsMissouri	W17-10	14.4	10/19	129	0	1	59.1	20	1	0.25
10	@Texas	L31-34	16.2	27/38	365	3	0	85.0	43	1	0.47
11	vsAuburn	W45-38	11.6	25/33	377	3	0	95.7	112	1	0.64
13	vsKentucky	W45-17	1.8	33/39	484	5	1	92.3	48	1	0.64
14	@Tennessee	W45-24	15.0	18/28	268	1	2	92.8	165	1	0.52
20	vsIowa	L27-34	19.7	25/38	347	2	0	86.3	36	1	—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

66.8%

Passing plays

94.2%

Rushing plays

38.5%

Standard downs

62.6%

Passing downs

78.4%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.37
Passing downs: 0.80
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.55 / 0.42

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2023 — 2025 · 41 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2023	New Mexico State	5.1	0.430	—	234.5
2024	Vanderbilt	6.9	0.444	+0.01	217.9
2025	Vanderbilt	13.6	0.534	+0.09	282.6

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.