Northwestern vs. Duke: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
NUTeam statsDUKE
- Q4 2:05NURiley Lees 20 Yd pass from Matt Alviti (Charlie Kuhbander Kick)17–41
- Q4 5:07DUKEAustin Parker 24 Yd Field Goal 10–41
- Q4 10:07DUKEShaun Wilson 8 Yd Run (Austin Parker Kick)10–38
- Q3 3:08DUKEDavis Koppenhaver 1 Yd pass from Daniel Jones (Austin Parker Kick)10–31
- Q3 9:54DUKEAustin Parker 31 Yd Field Goal 10–24
- Q2 0:33NUJustin Jackson 5 Yd Run (Charlie Kuhbander Kick)10–21
- Q2 9:15DUKEDaniel Jones 4 Yd Run (Austin Parker Kick)3–21
- Q2 13:18DUKEChris Taylor 52 Yd pass from Daniel Jones (Austin Parker Kick)3–14
- Q1 0:52DUKEDaniel Jones 11 Yd Run (Austin Parker Kick)3–7
- Q1 9:28NUCharlie Kuhbander 40 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- NU played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and DUKE did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.1 vs 3rd & 6.0
- PassClayton Thorson 11/29, 120 YDS, 2 INT
- RushJustin Jackson 7 CAR, 18 YDS, 1 TD
- RecRiley Lees 2 REC, 31 YDS, 1 TD
- PassDaniel Jones 29/45, 305 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushDaniel Jones 16 CAR, 108 YDS, 2 TD
- RecT.J. Rahming 12 REC, 127 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsDUKE up 21 entering the 4th quarter. Across 671 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 0:52DUKE +20%
Daniel Jones 11 Yd Run (Austin Parker Kick)
- Q2 13:18DUKE +19%
Chris Taylor 52 Yd pass from Daniel Jones (Austin Parker Kick)
- Q2 0:33NU +14%
Justin Jackson 5 Yd Run (Charlie Kuhbander Kick)
- Q2 9:15DUKE +14%
Daniel Jones 4 Yd Run (Austin Parker Kick)
- Q1 9:28NU +7%
Charlie Kuhbander 40 Yd Field Goal
- Q3 3:08DUKE +7%
Davis Koppenhaver 1 Yd pass from Daniel Jones (Austin Parker Kick)
FAQ
What was the final score of Northwestern vs. Duke?
Northwestern 17, Duke 41.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked NU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| NU | DUKE | |
|---|---|---|
| 191 | Total yards | 538 |
| 169 | Passing yards | 305 |
| 22 | Rushing yards | 233 |
| 15 | First downs | 34 |
| 1-10 | 3rd down | 15-22 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 14/33 | Comp/Att | 29/45 |
| 5.1 | Yards per pass | 6.8 |
| 1.0 | Yards per rush | 3.9 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 3-26 | Penalties | 8-55 |
| 18:42 | Possession | 41:18 |
Costliest call
Q2 3:44 DUKE punt on 4th & 25 at NU 33. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 1.45 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:05NURiley Lees 20 Yd pass from Matt Alviti (Charlie Kuhbander Kick)17–41
- Q4 5:07DUKEAustin Parker 24 Yd Field Goal 10–41
- Q4 10:07DUKEShaun Wilson 8 Yd Run (Austin Parker Kick)10–38
- Q3 3:08DUKEDavis Koppenhaver 1 Yd pass from Daniel Jones (Austin Parker Kick)10–31
- Q3 9:54DUKEAustin Parker 31 Yd Field Goal 10–24
- Q2 0:33NUJustin Jackson 5 Yd Run (Charlie Kuhbander Kick)10–21
- Q2 9:15DUKEDaniel Jones 4 Yd Run (Austin Parker Kick)3–21
- Q2 13:18DUKEChris Taylor 52 Yd pass from Daniel Jones (Austin Parker Kick)3–14
- Q1 0:52DUKEDaniel Jones 11 Yd Run (Austin Parker Kick)3–7
- Q1 9:28NUCharlie Kuhbander 40 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (DUKE Elo 1422, NU Elo 1584 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects DUKE +4.1 (40% to win) — 2.1 points clear of NU's market line of +2. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2017
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#38 of 107 in 2017 by biggest miss · #104 of 126 in 2017 by longest odds.
The 2017 upset archive →Duke leads 14–10 · Duke has won 6 straight · 38% have been one-possession games
| NU | DUKE | |
|---|---|---|
| +5.2 (#51) | CORE overall | +8.7 (#36) |
| -4 / -9 | offense / defense | -5 / -14 |
| 2.12 | points / drive | 1.75 |
| 1.51 | allowed / drive | 1.45 |
| 28% | three-and-outs | 29% |
| +2 | pass over expected | +2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →