Boston College vs. Virginia: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
BCTeam statsUVA
- Q4 9:30BCJohn Lamot 40 Yd Interception Return (Colton Lichtenberg Kick)41–10
- Q4 14:53UVAA.J. Mejia 38 Yd Field Goal 34–10
- Q3 2:11BCTommy Sweeney 3 Yd pass from Anthony Brown (Colton Lichtenberg Kick)34–7
- Q3 10:42BCColton Lichtenberg 36 Yd Field Goal 27–7
- Q2 0:42UVAJoe Reed 1 Yd Run (A.J. Mejia Kick)24–7
- Q2 11:35BCTommy Sweeney 10 Yd pass from Anthony Brown (Colton Lichtenberg Kick)24–0
- Q1 1:57BCKobay White 76 Yd pass from Anthony Brown (Colton Lichtenberg Kick)17–0
- Q1 4:16BCThadd Smith 76 Yd Run (Colton Lichtenberg Kick)10–0
- Q1 6:51BCColton Lichtenberg 30 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
- PassAnthony Brown Jr. 19/24, 275 YDS, 3 TD
- RushAJ Dillon 24 CAR, 89 YDS
- RecKobay White 3 REC, 85 YDS, 1 TD
- PassKurt Benkert 17/33, 126 YDS, 1 INT
- RushJordan Ellis 12 CAR, 58 YDS
- RecOlamide Zaccheaus 6 REC, 57 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsBC up 27 entering the 4th quarter. Across 532 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 4:16BC +19%
Thadd Smith run for 76 yds for a TD, (Colton Lichtenberg KICK)
- Q1 1:57BC +17%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Kobay White for 76 yds for a TD, (Colton Lichtenberg KICK)
- Q2 11:35BC +11%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Tommy Sweeney for 10 yds for a TD, (Colton Lichtenberg KICK)
- Q1 6:51BC +9%
Colton Lichtenberg 30 yd FG GOOD
- Q2 0:42UVA +7%
Joe Reed run for 1 yd for a TD, (A.J. Mejia KICK)
- Q2 0:42BC +6%
Team run for a loss of 2 yards to the BC 23
FAQ
What was the final score of Boston College vs. Virginia?
Boston College 41, Virginia 10.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked UVA, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| BC | UVA | |
|---|---|---|
| 512 | Total yards | 247 |
| 275 | Passing yards | 152 |
| 237 | Rushing yards | 95 |
| 19 | First downs | 19 |
| 10-19 | 3rd down | 7-16 |
| 2-3 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 19/24 | Comp/Att | 19/42 |
| 11.5 | Yards per pass | 3.6 |
| 5.0 | Yards per rush | 3.7 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 5-52 | Penalties | 1-15 |
| 33:35 | Possession | 26:25 |
Costliest call
Q1 15:00 UVA punt on 4th & 3 at UVA 44. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.45 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 9:30BCJohn Lamot 40 Yd Interception Return (Colton Lichtenberg Kick)41–10
- Q4 14:53UVAA.J. Mejia 38 Yd Field Goal 34–10
- Q3 2:11BCTommy Sweeney 3 Yd pass from Anthony Brown (Colton Lichtenberg Kick)34–7
- Q3 10:42BCColton Lichtenberg 36 Yd Field Goal 27–7
- Q2 0:42UVAJoe Reed 1 Yd Run (A.J. Mejia Kick)24–7
- Q2 11:35BCTommy Sweeney 10 Yd pass from Anthony Brown (Colton Lichtenberg Kick)24–0
- Q1 1:57BCKobay White 76 Yd pass from Anthony Brown (Colton Lichtenberg Kick)17–0
- Q1 4:16BCThadd Smith 76 Yd Run (Colton Lichtenberg Kick)10–0
- Q1 6:51BCColton Lichtenberg 30 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UVA Elo 1504, BC Elo 1412 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UVA -6.1 (67% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2017
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#13 of 107 in 2017 by biggest miss · #65 of 126 in 2017 by longest odds.
The 2017 upset archive →Boston College leads 7–2 · 33% have been one-possession games
| BC | UVA | |
|---|---|---|
| +11.0 (#29) | CORE overall | -4.1 (#76) |
| -0 / -11 | offense / defense | -7 / -3 |
| 1.74 | points / drive | 1.31 |
| 1.59 | allowed / drive | 2.07 |
| 28% | three-and-outs | 30% |
| -10 | pass over expected | +11 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →