Air Force vs. New Mexico: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
AFTeam statsUNM
- Q4 3:57UNMRichard McQuarley 65 Yd Run (Jason Sanders Kick)38–56
- Q4 4:07AFRyan Reffitt 17 Yd pass from Arion Worthman (Luke Strebel Kick)38–49
- Q4 6:59UNMRichard McQuarley 63 Yd Run (Jason Sanders Kick)31–49
- Q4 11:01AFRonald Cleveland 21 Yd pass from Arion Worthman (Luke Strebel Kick)31–42
- Q4 14:25UNMRichard McQuarley 5 Yd Run (Jason Sanders Kick)24–42
- Q3 0:21UNMRomell Jordan 4 Yd Run (Jason Sanders Kick)24–35
- Q3 2:10AFLuke Strebel 33 Yd Field Goal 24–28
- Q3 8:31UNMRichard McQuarley 6 Yd Run (Jason Sanders Kick)21–28
- Q3 11:25UNMDelane Hart-Johnson 49 Yd pass from Lamar Jordan (Jason Sanders Kick)21–21
- Q2 1:39AFArion Worthman 1 Yd Run (Luke Strebel Kick)21–14
- Q2 7:58AFGeraud Sanders 28 Yd pass from Arion Worthman (Luke Strebel Kick)14–14
- Q2 10:48UNMJay Griffin IV 71 Yd pass from Lamar Jordan (Jason Sanders Kick)7–14
- Q2 12:04AFTimothy McVey 15 Yd Run (Luke Strebel Kick)7–7
- Q1 2:22UNMRichard McQuarley 3 Yd Run (Jason Sanders Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassArion Worthman 9/17, 158 YDS, 3 TD
- RushArion Worthman 30 CAR, 90 YDS, 1 TD
- RecGeraud Sanders 4 REC, 54 YDS, 1 TD
- PassLamar Jordan 4/9, 146 YDS, 2 TD
- RushRichard McQuarley 11 CAR, 179 YDS, 5 TD
- RecJay Griffin IV 2 REC, 75 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUNM up 11 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,142 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 11:25UNM +29%
Lamar Jordan pass complete to Delane Hart-Johnson for 49 yds for a TD AIR FORCE Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined, (Jason Sanders KICK)
- Q3 8:31UNM +26%
Richard McQuarley run for 6 yds for a TD, (Jason Sanders KICK)
- Q2 10:48UNM +23%
Lamar Jordan pass complete to Jay Griffin IV for 71 yds for a TD, (Jason Sanders KICK)
- Q3 0:21UNM +22%
Romell Jordan run for 4 yds for a TD, (Jason Sanders KICK)
- Q2 1:39AF +22%
Arion Worthman run for 1 yd for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)
- Q2 7:58AF +21%
Arion Worthman pass complete to Geraud Sanders for 28 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Air Force vs. New Mexico?
Air Force 38, New Mexico 56.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked AF, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| AF | UNM | |
|---|---|---|
| 396 | Total yards | 509 |
| 158 | Passing yards | 146 |
| 238 | Rushing yards | 363 |
| 26 | First downs | 16 |
| 7-15 | 3rd down | 4-9 |
| 2-3 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 9/18 | Comp/Att | 4/9 |
| 8.8 | Yards per pass | 16.2 |
| 3.8 | Yards per rush | 8.9 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 2-15 | Penalties | 7-65 |
| 35:17 | Possession | 24:43 |
Costliest call
Q3 15:00 UNM punt on 4th & 1 at UNM 34. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.62 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 3:57UNMRichard McQuarley 65 Yd Run (Jason Sanders Kick)38–56
- Q4 4:07AFRyan Reffitt 17 Yd pass from Arion Worthman (Luke Strebel Kick)38–49
- Q4 6:59UNMRichard McQuarley 63 Yd Run (Jason Sanders Kick)31–49
- Q4 11:01AFRonald Cleveland 21 Yd pass from Arion Worthman (Luke Strebel Kick)31–42
- Q4 14:25UNMRichard McQuarley 5 Yd Run (Jason Sanders Kick)24–42
- Q3 0:21UNMRomell Jordan 4 Yd Run (Jason Sanders Kick)24–35
- Q3 2:10AFLuke Strebel 33 Yd Field Goal 24–28
- Q3 8:31UNMRichard McQuarley 6 Yd Run (Jason Sanders Kick)21–28
- Q3 11:25UNMDelane Hart-Johnson 49 Yd pass from Lamar Jordan (Jason Sanders Kick)21–21
- Q2 1:39AFArion Worthman 1 Yd Run (Luke Strebel Kick)21–14
- Q2 7:58AFGeraud Sanders 28 Yd pass from Arion Worthman (Luke Strebel Kick)14–14
- Q2 10:48UNMJay Griffin IV 71 Yd pass from Lamar Jordan (Jason Sanders Kick)7–14
- Q2 12:04AFTimothy McVey 15 Yd Run (Luke Strebel Kick)7–7
- Q1 2:22UNMRichard McQuarley 3 Yd Run (Jason Sanders Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UNM Elo 1446, AF Elo 1560 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UNM +2.2 (45% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2017
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#60 of 107 in 2017 by biggest miss · #93 of 126 in 2017 by longest odds.
The 2017 upset archive →Air Force leads 26–16 · New Mexico has won 2 straight · 33% have been one-possession games
| AF | UNM | |
|---|---|---|
| -11.8 (#103) | CORE overall | -16.4 (#109) |
| +2 / +14 | offense / defense | -7 / +9 |
| 2.44 | points / drive | 1.49 |
| 3.05 | allowed / drive | 2.65 |
| 22% | three-and-outs | 35% |
| -30 | pass over expected | -20 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →