#3Richard McQuarley

RB·New Mexico·20162.7 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Richard McQuarley is a Explosive Back for New Mexico. Richard's 2016 season ranks in the 68th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 140 plays — a average rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Richard McQuarley's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2016 Production

Rushing

656 Rush yards18 Rush TD143 Carries4.6 Yards/carry

Receiving

5 Receptions94 Rec yards0 Rec TD18.8 Yards/rec

Returns

2 Kick returns7 KR yards0 KR TD

Performance Analysis · 2016 · vs RB peers

Efficiency68
Volume49
Explosiveness32
Consistency67
Receiving55

Player type

Explosive Back

Elite per-carry efficiency — breaks big runs and creates chunk plays at a top rate while in a limited role.

Big-play threatHigh EPA per carryCapitalises on opportunities

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)68th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency67th %ile · average

Key findings

▸6 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Peak game: 0.87 EPA/play in Wk 13 vs Wyoming (SP+ -7).

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Travis Etienne	Clemson	2019	213	0.470	4.7	100.1
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	LSU	2019	216	0.490	5.0	105.8
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2017	240	0.410	5.2	98.4
Nick Wilson	Arizona	2014	250	0.410	5.2	102.5
James Flanders	Tulsa	2016	266	0.390	4.9	103.7

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	vsSouth Dakota	W48-21	—	13	55	4.2	2	—	—	—	0.04
2	@New Mexico State	L31-32	-17.2	5	12	2.4	1	—	—	—	-0.11
3	@Rutgers	L28-37	-14.9	6	52	8.7	1	—	—	—	0.76
5	vsSan José State	W48-41	-13.6	16	83	5.2	3	—	—	—	0.57
6	vsBoise State	L21-49	11.5	7	40	5.7	0	—	—	—	0.57
7	vsAir Force	W45-40	4.4	14	31	2.2	2	—	—	—	0.05
8	vsUL Monroe	W59-17	-21.3	9	68	7.6	1	—	—	—	0.53
9	@Hawai'i	W28-21	-10.1	6	17	2.8	1	1	6	0	0.35
10	vsNevada	W35-26	-13.0	14	43	3.1	1	1	5	0	0.03
11	@Utah State	W24-21	-4.4	14	44	3.1	0	—	—	—	-0.30
12	@Colorado State	L31-49	0.8	7	22	3.1	1	—	—	—	0.18
13	vsWyoming	W56-35	-6.9	15	121	8.1	3	2	58	0	0.87
1	vsUTSA	W23-20	-11.2	17	68	4.0	2	1	25	0	0.50

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

17.3%

Passing plays

5.2%

Rushing plays

21.1%

Standard downs

20.1%

Passing downs

10.5%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.25
Passing downs: 0.44
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.58 / 0.27

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2016 · 13 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.