BYU vs. Utah State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
BYUTeam statsUSU
- Q4 1:34USUUTAH ST Extra point GOOD.31–14
- Q4 1:34USUUTAH ST pass complete for a touchdown.31–13
- Q3 5:52BYUBYU Extra point GOOD.31–7
- Q3 5:52BYUBYU pass complete for a touchdown.30–7
- Q3 12:06BYUBYU Extra point GOOD.24–7
- Q3 12:06BYUBYU pass complete for a touchdown.23–7
- Q2 10:30BYUBYU Extra point GOOD.17–7
- Q2 10:30BYUBYU pass complete for a touchdown.16–7
- Q1 7:04BYUBYU 27 yard field goal GOOD.10–7
- Q1 10:48USUUTAH ST Extra point GOOD.7–7
- Q1 10:48USUUTAH ST pass complete for a touchdown.7–6
- Q1 14:50BYUBYU interception return for a touchdown.7–0
- Q1 14:50BYUBYU Extra point GOOD.7–0
How the model called it
- PassTaysom Hill 17/31, 278 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- RushJamaal Williams 14 CAR, 79 YDS
- RecMitch Mathews 5 REC, 112 YDS, 3 TD
- PassCraig Harrison 18/41, 185 YDS, 1 TD
- RushJoey DeMartino 16 CAR, 80 YDS
- RecTravis Reynolds 4 REC, 47 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsBYU up 24 entering the 4th quarter. Across 555 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 10:30BYU +18%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Mitch Mathews for 30 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q3 12:06BYU +13%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Mitch Mathews for 6 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q3 5:52BYU +7%
Taysom Hill pass complete to Mitch Mathews for 43 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 1:45BYU +6%
Taysom Hill pass incomplete to Mitch Mathews
FAQ
What was the final score of BYU vs. Utah State?
BYU 31, Utah State 14.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked USU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| BYU | USU | |
|---|---|---|
| 437 | Total yards | 397 |
| 278 | Passing yards | 211 |
| 159 | Rushing yards | 186 |
| 18 | First downs | 20 |
| 4-18 | 3rd down | 10-23 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 0-2 |
| 17/32 | Comp/Att | 22/51 |
| 8.7 | Yards per pass | 4.1 |
| 3.2 | Yards per rush | 5.3 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 3-36 | Penalties | 3-28 |
| 29:23 | Possession | 30:21 |
Costliest call
Q2 5:03 USU punt on 4th & 1 at BYU 49. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.60 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:34USUUTAH ST Extra point GOOD.31–14
- Q4 1:34USUUTAH ST pass complete for a touchdown.31–13
- Q3 5:52BYUBYU Extra point GOOD.31–7
- Q3 5:52BYUBYU pass complete for a touchdown.30–7
- Q3 12:06BYUBYU Extra point GOOD.24–7
- Q3 12:06BYUBYU pass complete for a touchdown.23–7
- Q2 10:30BYUBYU Extra point GOOD.17–7
- Q2 10:30BYUBYU pass complete for a touchdown.16–7
- Q1 7:04BYUBYU 27 yard field goal GOOD.10–7
- Q1 10:48USUUTAH ST Extra point GOOD.7–7
- Q1 10:48USUUTAH ST pass complete for a touchdown.7–6
- Q1 14:50BYUBYU interception return for a touchdown.7–0
- Q1 14:50BYUBYU Extra point GOOD.7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (USU Elo 1764, BYU Elo 1713 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects USU -4.4 (63% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2013
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#54 of 93 in 2013 by biggest miss · #69 of 93 in 2013 by longest odds.
The 2013 upset archive →BYU leads 51–37–3 · BYU has won 3 straight · 29% have been one-possession games
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →