#21Jamaal Williams

RB·BYU·2016 20133.6 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Jamaal Williams is a 2-year Featured Back for BYU. Jamaal's 2016 season ranks in the 63th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 216 plays — a average rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Jamaal Williams's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2016 Production

Rushing

1375 Rush yards12 Rush TD234 Carries5.9 Yards/carry

Receiving

7 Receptions80 Rec yards0 Rec TD11.4 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2016 · vs RB peers

Efficiency63
Volume96
Explosiveness58
Consistency61
Receiving21

Player type

Featured Back

The centerpiece of the run game — high carry volume, used in early downs and goal-line, true workhorse role.

Primary ball carrierHigh volumeGoal-line threat

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)63th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency61th %ile · average

Key findings

▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used RBs by play share.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.09 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.70 EPA/play in Wk 5 vs Toledo (SP+ 12).

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Travis Etienne	Clemson	2019	213	0.470	4.7	100.1
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2017	240	0.410	5.2	98.4
James Flanders	Tulsa	2016	266	0.390	4.9	103.7
Nick Wilson	Arizona	2014	250	0.410	5.2	102.5
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	vsArizona	W18-16	-4.5	29	162	5.6	0	1	10	0	0.11
2	@Utah	L19-20	10.9	12	58	4.8	0	1	10	0	-0.01
3	vsUCLA	L14-17	9.1	14	28	2.0	1	2	45	0	0.09
4	vsWest Virginia	L32-35	11.3	24	169	7.0	2	2	11	0	0.31
5	vsToledo	W55-53	12.3	30	286	9.5	5	—	—	—	0.70
6	@Michigan State	W31-14	7.4	30	163	5.4	2	1	4	0	0.20
7	vsMississippi State	W28-21	5.4	26	76	2.9	0	—	—	—	-0.15
10	@Cincinnati	W20-3	-3.6	25	92	3.7	0	—	—	—	0.02
13	vsUtah State	W28-10	-4.4	18	131	7.3	1	—	—	—	0.55
1	vsWyoming	W24-21	-6.9	26	210	8.1	1	—	—	—	0.11

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

33.5%

Passing plays

3.9%

Rushing plays

57.6%

Standard downs

39.7%

Passing downs

16.9%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.19
Passing downs: 0.36
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.22 / 0.21

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2013 — 2016 · 21 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2013	BYU	1.7	0.080	—	16.0
2016	BYU	3.6	0.370	+0.29	79.6

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.