Arkansas State vs. Memphis: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ARSTTeam statsMEM
- Q3 2:15MEMMEMPHIS Extra point GOOD.7–31
- Q3 2:15MEMMEMPHIS rush for a touchdown.7–30
- Q2 5:25MEMMEMPHIS Extra point GOOD.7–24
- Q2 5:25MEMMEMPHIS rush for a touchdown.7–23
- Q2 9:52MEMMEMPHIS 23 yard field goal GOOD.7–17
- Q1 5:03ARSTARKANSAS ST Extra point GOOD.7–14
- Q1 5:03ARSTARKANSAS ST pass complete for a touchdown.6–14
- Q1 6:39MEMMEMPHIS Extra point GOOD.0–14
- Q1 6:39MEMMEMPHIS pass complete for a touchdown.0–13
- Q1 12:01MEMMEMPHIS Extra point GOOD.0–7
- Q1 12:01MEMMEMPHIS rush for a touchdown.0–6
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- ARST played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and MEM did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.3 vs 3rd & 5.1
- PassAdam Kennedy 20/37, 166 YDS, 1 INT
- RushDavid Oku 12 CAR, 45 YDS
- RecJulian Jones 6 REC, 59 YDS
- PassPaxton Lynch 17/26, 176 YDS, 1 TD
- RushMarquis Warford 11 CAR, 173 YDS, 1 TD
- RecMose Frazier 2 REC, 35 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsMEM up 24 entering the 4th quarter. Across 555 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 6:39MEM +16%
Paxton Lynch pass complete to Alan Cross for 6 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 5:25MEM +16%
Sam Craft rush for 5 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q1 12:01MEM +15%
Brandon Hayes rush for 6 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q1 5:03ARST +15%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to J.D. McKissic for 15 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 9:52MEM +11%
Jake Elliott 23 yard field goal GOOD
- Q3 2:15MEM +5%
Marquis Warford rush for 16 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
FAQ
What was the final score of Arkansas State vs. Memphis?
Arkansas State 7, Memphis 31.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked ARST, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| ARST | MEM | |
|---|---|---|
| 255 | Total yards | 505 |
| 181 | Passing yards | 176 |
| 74 | Rushing yards | 329 |
| 17 | First downs | 23 |
| 4-15 | 3rd down | 6-14 |
| 0-2 | 4th down | 1-3 |
| 22/39 | Comp/Att | 17/26 |
| 4.6 | Yards per pass | 6.8 |
| 2.4 | Yards per rush | 7.3 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 5-50 | Penalties | 4-40 |
| 23:59 | Possession | 35:33 |
Costliest call
Q4 14:11 MEM punt on 4th & 1 at ARST 42. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.94 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q3 2:15MEMMEMPHIS Extra point GOOD.7–31
- Q3 2:15MEMMEMPHIS rush for a touchdown.7–30
- Q2 5:25MEMMEMPHIS Extra point GOOD.7–24
- Q2 5:25MEMMEMPHIS rush for a touchdown.7–23
- Q2 9:52MEMMEMPHIS 23 yard field goal GOOD.7–17
- Q1 5:03ARSTARKANSAS ST Extra point GOOD.7–14
- Q1 5:03ARSTARKANSAS ST pass complete for a touchdown.6–14
- Q1 6:39MEMMEMPHIS Extra point GOOD.0–14
- Q1 6:39MEMMEMPHIS pass complete for a touchdown.0–13
- Q1 12:01MEMMEMPHIS Extra point GOOD.0–7
- Q1 12:01MEMMEMPHIS rush for a touchdown.0–6
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MEM Elo 1276, ARST Elo 1519 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MEM +7.3 (32% to win) — 3.8 points clear of ARST's market line of +3.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2013
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#33 of 93 in 2013 by biggest miss · #82 of 93 in 2013 by longest odds.
The 2013 upset archive →Memphis leads 20–8–3 · Memphis has won 5 straight · 35% have been one-possession games
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →