#12Paxton Lynch

QB·Memphis·2015 201411.4 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Paxton Lynch is a 2-year Dual-Threat QB for Memphis. Paxton's 2015 season ranks in the 60th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 517 plays — a average rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Paxton Lynch's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2015 Production

Passing

296/443 Comp/Att3776 Pass yards28 Pass TD4 INT66.8% Comp %

Rushing

239 Rush yards2 Rush TD87 Carries2.7 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2015 · vs QB peers

Efficiency60
Volume100
Dual-Threat98
Consistency73
Clutch78

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)60th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency73th %ile · average

Key findings

▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸7 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.10 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 1.59 EPA/play in Wk 13 vs SMU (SP+ -18).

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Stetson Bennett	Georgia	2022	509	0.635	12.5	323.0
Ryan Higgins	Louisiana Tech	2016	571	0.586	13.7	334.6
Tanner Mordecai	SMU	2021	510	0.630	14.0	321.5
Kyle McCord	Syracuse	2024	632	0.509	12.1	321.4
Trace McSorley	Penn State	2017	626	0.513	12.7	321.0

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsMissouri State	W63-7	—	8/12	78	1	0	84.1	27	0	0.43
2	@Kansas	W55-23	-21.3	22/25	354	2	0	95.5	14	0	0.94
3	@Bowling Green	W44-41	7.5	29/40	386	3	0	88.8	17	0	0.50
4	vsCincinnati	W53-46	5.3	24/36	412	2	0	80.3	52	0	0.53
5	@South Florida	W24-17	3.6	20/33	305	2	0	72.8	6	1	0.35
7	vsOle Miss	W37-24	27.0	39/53	384	3	1	63.1	3	0	0.30
8	@Tulsa	W66-42	-8.5	32/44	447	4	0	96.0	6	1	0.72
9	vsTulane	W41-13	-14.0	26/42	343	1	0	68.3	43	0	0.29
10	vsNavy	L20-45	12.1	26/42	305	1	1	67.9	24	0	0.27
11	@Houston	L34-35	6.2	20/31	278	2	1	69.1	43	0	0.54
12	@Temple	L12-31	6.0	25/34	156	0	0	36.0	-2	0	0.01
13	vsSMU	W63-0	-17.5	9/14	222	7	0	98.7	7	0	1.59
1	vsAuburn	L10-31	14.6	16/37	106	0	1	13.4	-1	0	-0.26

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

50.4%

Passing plays

95.6%

Rushing plays

13.0%

Standard downs

45.3%

Passing downs

61.3%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.32
Passing downs: 0.51
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.39 / 0.39

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2014 — 2015 · 26 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2014	Memphis	4.5	0.354	—	185.5
2015	Memphis	11.4	0.518	+0.16	281.3

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.