#12Paxton Lynch

QB·Memphis·2015 20144.5 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Paxton Lynch is a 2-year Dual-Threat QB for Memphis. Paxton's 2014 season ranks in the 5th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 511 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Paxton Lynch's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2014 Production

Passing

259/413 Comp/Att3031 Pass yards22 Pass TD9 INT62.7% Comp %

Rushing

321 Rush yards13 Rush TD113 Carries2.8 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2014 · vs QB peers

Efficiency5
Volume100
Dual-Threat62
Consistency67
Clutch75

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)5th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency67th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸4 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.09 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 0.79 EPA/play in Wk 6 vs Cincinnati (SP+ 7).

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsAustin Peay	W63-0	—	20/27	242	2	1	81.3	34	2	0.50
2	@UCLA	L35-42	17.7	27/41	305	1	0	68.6	27	1	0.23
4	vsMiddle Tennessee	W36-17	-8.7	21/35	219	2	1	49.6	16	0	0.15
5	@Ole Miss	L3-24	20.7	13/31	81	0	1	5.1	-24	0	-0.41
6	@Cincinnati	W41-14	6.9	18/25	311	2	0	93.6	45	2	0.79
7	vsHouston	L24-28	5.4	26/37	243	2	3	25.4	35	1	-0.06
9	@SMU	W48-10	-21.2	17/23	307	1	0	81.7	-6	0	0.53
10	vsTulsa	W40-20	-15.8	18/31	183	0	0	37.5	47	1	0.12
11	@Temple	W16-13	-4.7	21/28	230	1	0	72.1	-1	0	0.36
12	@Tulane	W38-7	-15.0	14/25	178	1	0	36.3	26	1	0.28
13	vsSouth Florida	W31-20	-11.8	18/23	232	2	0	97.1	44	2	0.63
14	vsUConn	W41-10	-14.1	22/41	194	4	0	68.2	40	0	0.18
1	vsBYU	W55-48	10.2	24/46	306	4	3	47.1	38	3	0.18

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

51.0%

Passing plays

98.8%

Rushing plays

17.5%

Standard downs

44.6%

Passing downs

65.0%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.15
Passing downs: 0.33
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.23 / 0.21

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2014 — 2015 · 26 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2014	Memphis	4.5	0.354	—	185.5
2015	Memphis	11.4	0.518	+0.16	281.3

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.