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Watchlist

Week 6 of 2026, ranked by a score whose parts are all shown. No term rewards a program for being famous — if a Tuesday MAC game outranks the night game, that is the answer.

Week01234567891011121315

The five

  1. 1
    #4Texasvs#11OklahomaRed River Rivalry
    Sat, Oct 10 · 3:30 PM ETCotton Bowlmodel Texas by 5.7market +6
    • Projected closeness 20/35
    • Team quality 28/30
    • Stakes 15/15
    • History 10/10
    • Points on the board 1/10
    73
    score
  2. 2
    DukeatGeorgia Tech
    Time TBDBobby Dodd Stadiummodel Georgia Tech by 0.4
    • Projected closeness 34/35
    • Team quality 20/30
    • Stakes 3/15
    • History 4/10
    • Points on the board 4/10
    64
    score
  3. 3
    South CarolinaatFlorida
    Time TBDBen Hill Griffin Stadiummodel South Carolina by 1.0
    • Projected closeness 32/35
    • Team quality 24/30
    • Stakes 3/15
    • History 3/10
    • Points on the board 3/10
    64
    score
  4. 4
    #21Iowaat#19Washington
    Fri, Oct 9 · 9:00 PM ETHusky Stadiummodel Washington by 5.0
    • Projected closeness 21/35
    • Team quality 27/30
    • Stakes 13/15
    • Points on the board 3/10
    64
    score
  5. 5
    #10Texas A&Mat#23Missouri
    Time TBDMemorial Stadiummodel Texas A&M by 7.5
    • Projected closeness 17/35
    • Team quality 26/30
    • Stakes 15/15
    • History 2/10
    • Points on the board 1/10
    61
    score

The rest of the slate

  1. 6
    #2Georgiaat#12Alabama
    Time TBDBryant-Denny Stadiummodel Georgia by 11.2market +3
    • Projected closeness 12/35
    • Team quality 28/30
    • Stakes 15/15
    • History 4/10
    • Points on the board 1/10
    60
    score
  2. 7
    South FloridaatUTSA
    Thu, Oct 8 · 7:30 PM ETAlamodomemodel UTSA by 0.7
    • Projected closeness 33/35
    • Team quality 19/30
    • Stakes 3/15
    • Points on the board 4/10
    59
    score
  3. 8
    #18TennesseeatArkansas
    Time TBDRazorback Stadiummodel Tennessee by 3.5
    • Projected closeness 25/35
    • Team quality 20/30
    • Stakes 7/15
    • History 2/10
    • Points on the board 3/10
    58
    score
  4. 9
    Boise StateatFresno StateMilk Can
    Sat, Oct 10 · 10:30 PM ETValley Children's Stadiummodel Boise State by 3.0
    • Projected closeness 26/35
    • Team quality 15/30
    • Stakes 3/15
    • History 8/10
    • Points on the board 4/10
    56
    score
  5. 10
    #22HoustonatKansas State
    Time TBDBill Snyder Family Stadiummodel Houston by 3.9
    • Projected closeness 24/35
    • Team quality 18/30
    • Stakes 7/15
    • Points on the board 3/10
    52
    score
  6. 11
    #14USCat#16Penn State
    Time TBDBeaver Stadiummodel USC by 16.5market -1.5
    • Projected closeness 7/35
    • Team quality 28/30
    • Stakes 14/15
    • History 2/10
    • Points on the board 1/10
    52
    score
  7. 12
    Florida Stateat#24Louisville
    Fri, Oct 9 · 7:00 PM ETL&N Federal Credit Union Stadiummodel Louisville by 5.7
    • Projected closeness 20/35
    • Team quality 21/30
    • Stakes 7/15
    • History 1/10
    • Points on the board 2/10
    51
    score
  8. 13
    TulsaatNavy
    Sat, Oct 10 · 3:30 PM ETNavy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadiummodel Tulsa by 0.1
    • Projected closeness 35/35
    • Team quality 9/30
    • Stakes 3/15
    • History 1/10
    • Points on the board 4/10
    50
    score
  9. 14
    #9Ole MissatVanderbilt
    Time TBDFirstBank Stadiummodel Ole Miss by 13.7
    • Projected closeness 9/35
    • Team quality 27/30
    • Stakes 8/15
    • History 4/10
    • Points on the board 1/10
    49
    score
  10. 15
    Wake ForestatNC State
    Time TBDCarter-Finley Stadiummodel NC State by 4.4
    • Projected closeness 23/35
    • Team quality 16/30
    • Stakes 3/15
    • History 4/10
    • Points on the board 4/10
    49
    score
  11. 16
    Hawai'iatArizona State
    Time TBDMountain America Stadiummodel Arizona State by 2.4
    • Projected closeness 28/35
    • Team quality 15/30
    • Points on the board 6/10
    48
    score
  12. 17
    South AlabamaatArkansas State
    Thu, Oct 8 · 7:30 PM ETCentennial Bank Stadiummodel Arkansas State by 1.1
    • Projected closeness 31/35
    • Team quality 8/30
    • Stakes 3/15
    • History 2/10
    • Points on the board 3/10
    47
    score
  13. 18
    UCFatOklahoma State
    Time TBDBoone Pickens Stadiummodel UCF by 0.2
    • Projected closeness 34/35
    • Team quality 6/30
    • Stakes 3/15
    • Points on the board 4/10
    47
    score
  14. 19
    IllinoisatMichigan State
    Time TBDSpartan Stadiummodel Illinois by 6.7
    • Projected closeness 18/35
    • Team quality 17/30
    • Stakes 3/15
    • History 4/10
    • Points on the board 4/10
    46
    score
  15. 20
    Jacksonville StateatKennesaw State
    Wed, Oct 7 · 7:00 PM ETFifth Third Stadiummodel Kennesaw State by 1.7
    • Projected closeness 30/35
    • Team quality 10/30
    • Stakes 3/15
    • Points on the board 3/10
    45
    score
  16. 21
    #5IndianaatNebraska
    Time TBDMemorial Stadium (Lincoln, NE)model Indiana by 19.1
    • Projected closeness 5/35
    • Team quality 24/30
    • Stakes 9/15
    • History 3/10
    • Points on the board 2/10
    43
    score
  17. 22
    #8LSUatKentucky
    Time TBDKroger Fieldmodel LSU by 14.6
    • Projected closeness 8/35
    • Team quality 18/30
    • Stakes 8/15
    • History 3/10
    • Points on the board 4/10
    42
    score
  18. 23
    James MadisonatGeorgia Southern
    Time TBDAllen E. Paulson Stadiummodel James Madison by 6.5
    • Projected closeness 18/35
    • Team quality 15/30
    • Stakes 3/15
    • Points on the board 4/10
    39
    score
  19. 24
    LouisianaatLouisiana Tech
    Time TBDJoe Aillet Stadiummodel Louisiana Tech by 6.1
    • Projected closeness 19/35
    • Team quality 11/30
    • Stakes 3/15
    • History 3/10
    • Points on the board 4/10
    39
    score
  20. 25
    UABatMemphis
    Time TBDSimmons Bank Liberty Stadiummodel Memphis by 7.9
    • Projected closeness 16/35
    • Team quality 14/30
    • Stakes 3/15
    • History 2/10
    • Points on the board 4/10
    39
    score
  21. 26
    MinnesotaatPurdue
    Time TBDRoss-Ade Stadiummodel Minnesota by 6.5
    • Projected closeness 18/35
    • Team quality 9/30
    • Stakes 3/15
    • History 5/10
    • Points on the board 4/10
    38
    score
  22. 27
    UConnatTemple
    Time TBDLincoln Financial Fieldmodel Temple by 3.8
    • Projected closeness 24/35
    • Team quality 9/30
    • History 2/10
    • Points on the board 4/10
    38
    score
  23. 28
    Washington StateatUtah State
    Fri, Oct 9 · 9:00 PM ETMaverik Stadiummodel Utah State by 6.5
    • Projected closeness 18/35
    • Team quality 13/30
    • Stakes 3/15
    • Points on the board 4/10
    38
    score
  24. 29
    Southern MissatTroy
    Tue, Oct 6 · 8:00 PM ETVeterans Memorial Stadium (AL)model Southern Miss by 4.6
    • Projected closeness 22/35
    • Team quality 8/30
    • Stakes 3/15
    • History 1/10
    • Points on the board 4/10
    38
    score
  25. 30
    North Dakota StateatUNLV
    Sat, Oct 10 · 7:00 PM ETAllegiant Stadiummodel UNLV by 11.8
    • Projected closeness 11/35
    • Team quality 20/30
    • Stakes 3/15
    • Points on the board 4/10
    38
    score
  26. 31
    Old DominionatApp State
    Time TBDKidd Brewer Stadiummodel Old Dominion by 3.2
    • Projected closeness 25/35
    • Team quality 5/30
    • Stakes 3/15
    • Points on the board 4/10
    37
    score
  27. 32
    Eastern MichiganatAkron
    Sat, Oct 10 · 3:30 PM ETInfoCision Stadiummodel Akron by 4.0
    • Projected closeness 24/35
    • Team quality 2/30
    • Stakes 3/15
    • History 3/10
    • Points on the board 5/10
    37
    score
  28. 33
    TulaneatArmy
    Sat, Oct 10 · 12:00 PM ETMichie Stadiummodel Army by 12.5
    • Projected closeness 10/35
    • Team quality 17/30
    • Stakes 3/15
    • History 3/10
    • Points on the board 4/10
    37
    score
  29. 34
    UCLAat#6Oregon
    Time TBDAutzen Stadiummodel Oregon by 21.5
    • Projected closeness 4/35
    • Team quality 18/30
    • Stakes 8/15
    • History 5/10
    • Points on the board 2/10
    37
    score
  30. 35
    Kansasat#20Utah
    Time TBDRice-Eccles Stadiummodel Utah by 15.7
    • Projected closeness 7/35
    • Team quality 18/30
    • Stakes 7/15
    • Points on the board 4/10
    37
    score
  31. 36
    Iowa Stateat#15BYU
    Fri, Oct 9 · 10:15 PM ETLaVell Edwards Stadiummodel BYU by 24.3
    • Projected closeness 3/35
    • Team quality 22/30
    • Stakes 8/15
    • Points on the board 3/10
    36
    score
  32. 37
    Virginia TechatCalifornia
    Time TBDCalifornia Memorial Stadiummodel California by 5.4
    • Projected closeness 21/35
    • Team quality 8/30
    • Stakes 3/15
    • Points on the board 4/10
    35
    score
  33. 38
    Marylandat#1Ohio State
    Time TBDOhio Stadiummodel Ohio State by 23.0
    • Projected closeness 4/35
    • Team quality 18/30
    • Stakes 9/15
    • History 1/10
    • Points on the board 2/10
    33
    score
  34. 39
    Stanfordat#3Notre Dame
    Sat, Oct 10 · 3:30 PM ETNotre Dame Stadiummodel Notre Dame by 28.5
    • Projected closeness 2/35
    • Team quality 15/30
    • Stakes 7/15
    • History 3/10
    • Points on the board 4/10
    31
    score
  35. 40
    WyomingatSan José State
    Fri, Oct 9 · 9:00 PM ETCEFCU Stadiummodel Wyoming by 6.8
    • Projected closeness 18/35
    • Team quality 7/30
    • Stakes 3/15
    • History 3/10
    30
    score

How the score is built

Projected closeness — 35 points
Decays exponentially in the model’s projected margin: a pick’em is the full 35, a touchdown favorite about half, three scores nothing. The largest term, because a blowout is a blowout no matter who is playing.
Team quality — 30 points
Elo percentile of both sides, with two thirds of the weight on the weaker team. A top-five side hosting a bad one is not a good game, and an average of the two would claim it was.
Stakes — 15 points
Poll position going into the week, plus a share for a conference game. Two ranked teams take most of it; the higher the pair, the more.
Rivalry history — 10 points
From the all-time series: a named trophy game, the length of the series, and whether the all-time ledger has stayed close.
Points on the board — 10 points
The projected total, from the drive-sim. A 31-28 is better television than a 10-7 and that is allowed to matter a little — but only a little, or the whole list becomes bad defenses.

There is no term for brand, television window or network. A watchability score that rewards blue bloods for existing is a popularity ranking wearing a lab coat.